{"title":"气候变化对土耳其毛睡鼠分布的影响:数据驱动法","authors":"Zeycan Helvacı","doi":"10.1515/mammalia-2024-0016","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"This study examines the population structure, ecological niche, and vulnerability to climate change of the woolly dormouse <jats:italic>Dryomys laniger</jats:italic> in Türkiye. Integrating genetic data with species distribution modeling, the research predicts suitable habitats for <jats:italic>D. laniger</jats:italic> under current and future climate change scenarios until the year 2100. Using an ensemble of two machine learning models, this study finds that by 2040, the range of <jats:italic>D. laniger</jats:italic> will be reduced significantly, particularly in southern populations. Eastern areas emerge as a potential refuge, showing slight expansion and colonization. The low genetic diversity in this eastern population indicates the need for long-term adaptability of <jats:italic>D. laniger</jats:italic>. Due to the unique adaptive potential of each population, this research highlights the importance of region-specific management plans to ensure the long-term survival of this species, which appears to be vulnerable to habitat fragmentation.","PeriodicalId":49892,"journal":{"name":"Mammalia","volume":"193 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.8000,"publicationDate":"2024-08-05","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":"0","resultStr":"{\"title\":\"Climate change impacts on the distribution of Dryomys laniger (woolly dormouse) in Türkiye: a data-driven approach\",\"authors\":\"Zeycan Helvacı\",\"doi\":\"10.1515/mammalia-2024-0016\",\"DOIUrl\":null,\"url\":null,\"abstract\":\"This study examines the population structure, ecological niche, and vulnerability to climate change of the woolly dormouse <jats:italic>Dryomys laniger</jats:italic> in Türkiye. Integrating genetic data with species distribution modeling, the research predicts suitable habitats for <jats:italic>D. laniger</jats:italic> under current and future climate change scenarios until the year 2100. Using an ensemble of two machine learning models, this study finds that by 2040, the range of <jats:italic>D. laniger</jats:italic> will be reduced significantly, particularly in southern populations. Eastern areas emerge as a potential refuge, showing slight expansion and colonization. The low genetic diversity in this eastern population indicates the need for long-term adaptability of <jats:italic>D. laniger</jats:italic>. Due to the unique adaptive potential of each population, this research highlights the importance of region-specific management plans to ensure the long-term survival of this species, which appears to be vulnerable to habitat fragmentation.\",\"PeriodicalId\":49892,\"journal\":{\"name\":\"Mammalia\",\"volume\":\"193 1\",\"pages\":\"\"},\"PeriodicalIF\":0.8000,\"publicationDate\":\"2024-08-05\",\"publicationTypes\":\"Journal Article\",\"fieldsOfStudy\":null,\"isOpenAccess\":false,\"openAccessPdf\":\"\",\"citationCount\":\"0\",\"resultStr\":null,\"platform\":\"Semanticscholar\",\"paperid\":null,\"PeriodicalName\":\"Mammalia\",\"FirstCategoryId\":\"99\",\"ListUrlMain\":\"https://doi.org/10.1515/mammalia-2024-0016\",\"RegionNum\":4,\"RegionCategory\":\"生物学\",\"ArticlePicture\":[],\"TitleCN\":null,\"AbstractTextCN\":null,\"PMCID\":null,\"EPubDate\":\"\",\"PubModel\":\"\",\"JCR\":\"Q3\",\"JCRName\":\"ZOOLOGY\",\"Score\":null,\"Total\":0}","platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"Mammalia","FirstCategoryId":"99","ListUrlMain":"https://doi.org/10.1515/mammalia-2024-0016","RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"生物学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"Q3","JCRName":"ZOOLOGY","Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
摘要
本研究考察了图尔基耶的毛睡鼠Dryomys laniger的种群结构、生态位和对气候变化的脆弱性。该研究将遗传数据与物种分布建模相结合,预测了在当前和未来的气候变化情景下直到 2100 年 D. laniger 的适宜栖息地。这项研究利用两个机器学习模型的组合发现,到2040年,D. laniger的分布范围将大幅缩小,尤其是南部种群。东部地区将成为潜在的避难所,出现轻微的扩张和殖民化。东部种群的遗传多样性较低,这表明 D. laniger 需要有长期的适应能力。由于每个种群都有独特的适应潜力,这项研究强调了针对特定地区制定管理计划的重要性,以确保该物种的长期生存,因为该物种似乎很容易受到栖息地破碎化的影响。
Climate change impacts on the distribution of Dryomys laniger (woolly dormouse) in Türkiye: a data-driven approach
This study examines the population structure, ecological niche, and vulnerability to climate change of the woolly dormouse Dryomys laniger in Türkiye. Integrating genetic data with species distribution modeling, the research predicts suitable habitats for D. laniger under current and future climate change scenarios until the year 2100. Using an ensemble of two machine learning models, this study finds that by 2040, the range of D. laniger will be reduced significantly, particularly in southern populations. Eastern areas emerge as a potential refuge, showing slight expansion and colonization. The low genetic diversity in this eastern population indicates the need for long-term adaptability of D. laniger. Due to the unique adaptive potential of each population, this research highlights the importance of region-specific management plans to ensure the long-term survival of this species, which appears to be vulnerable to habitat fragmentation.
期刊介绍:
Mammalia is an international, multidisciplinary, bimonthly journal devoted to the inventory, analysis and interpretation of mammalian diversity. It publishes original results on all aspects of the systematics and biology of mammals with a strong focus on ecology, including biodiversity analyses, distribution habitats, diet, predator-prey relationships, competition, community analyses and conservation of mammals. The journal also accepts submissions on sub-fossil or recently extinct mammals.