过去六十年中国冬季向潮湿极端寒冷事件的转变

Yongli He, Yangrui Peng, Zhanbo Wang, Shanshan Wang, Xiaodan Guan
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引用次数: 0

摘要

冬季极端寒冷事件(ECEs)对经济和健康构成重大风险,尤其是在寒冷与潮湿交织的情况下。虽然全球变暖导致极寒事件的总体发生率下降,但潮湿极寒事件的变化仍不确定。本研究利用干湿球温度对中国各地的干湿幼年期进行了分类,并分析了湿润幼年期的比例以及影响这一现象的潜在因素。与冬季相对湿度(RH)下降的趋势相反,我们的研究结果表明,幼年时期的相对湿度有所上升。这一观察结果表明,在这些事件期间,气候条件正在向更潮湿的方向转变。进一步的分析表明,湿润的欧洲经委会所占的比例越来越大,尤其是在新疆,而干燥的欧洲经委会的发生率却在下降。将欧洲经委会划分为以温度或湿度为主的类型后发现,以湿度为主的湿润欧洲经委会显著增加,其主要驱动因素是具体的湿度变化,而不是温度变化。这些发现突出表明,在气候变暖的情况下,迫切需要制定适应战略,以应对更多的潮湿欧洲经委会。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
The transition to humid extreme cold events in winter during the past six decades over China
Winter extreme cold events (ECEs) pose significant economic and health risks, particularly when cold is combined with humidity. Although global warming has led to a decline in overall ECE occurrences, the changes in humid ECEs remain uncertain. This study uses dry and wet-bulb temperatures to categorize dry and humid ECEs across China and analyzes the proportion of humid ECEs, and the underlying factors influencing this phenomenon. In contrast to the decreasing trend of winter relative humidity (RH), our findings show an increase in RH during ECEs. This observation suggests a shift toward more humid conditions during these events. Further analysis shows an increasing percentage of humid ECEs, especially in Xinjiang, where the occurrence of dry ECEs is decreasing. Classifying ECEs into temperature- or humidity-dominated types reveals a significant increase in humidity-dominated humid ECEs, which is driven mainly by specific humidity changes, not temperature changes. These findings highlight the urgent need for adaptation strategies for more humid ECEs in a warming climate.
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