索马里气候变化、粮食不安全和冲突的关联:对多方面挑战和复原战略的全面分析

Mohamed Mustaf Ahmed, Hodo Aideed Asowe, N. I. Dirie, Abdirahman Khalif Mohamud, Don Eliseo Lucero-Prisno, III, O. Okesanya, J. Ogaya, Shuaibu Saidu Musa, Muhammad Kabir Musa, Z. Othman, D. Shomuyiwa, Abdullateef Abdulsalam
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引用次数: 0

摘要

气候变化对索马里的粮食安全和稳定构成重大威胁。本报告探讨了气候变化影响、粮食不安全和索马里冲突之间复杂的相互作用。最近的气候数据和预测令人担忧:2024 年 4 月至 6 月的降雨概率预测显示,索马里大部分地区的降雨量很可能高于正常水平,从而增加了洪水风险。同时,气温预测显示气温高于正常水平,可能加剧雨季之间的干旱状况。历史气候数据揭示了索马里的脆弱性,平均气温在 25°C 至 30°C 之间,季节变化显著,影响农业和水资源。这些气候趋势与持续的政治不稳定和治理薄弱相结合,形成了一场挑战风暴。本视角探讨了反复发生的干旱和洪水如何破坏农业生产、使牲畜死亡、使弱势人口流离失所,尤其是那些影响农村和游牧社区的干旱和洪水。它还探讨了环境压力如何加剧贫困和冲突,从而造成脆弱性的恶性循环。这一分析借鉴了有关贫困率、粮食支出模式以及与气候相关的流离失所问题的最新数据,以说明危机的多面性。最后,本视角提出了在索马里建设气候复原力、加强粮食安全和促进可持续发展的建议,强调需要采取综合方法,将紧急人道主义援助与长期适应战略结合起来。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
The Nexus of Climate Change, Food Insecurity, and Conflict in Somalia: A Comprehensive Analysis of Multifaceted Challenges and Resilience Strategies
Climate change poses a significant threat to Somalia’s food security and stability. This review examines the complex interplay between climate change impacts, food insecurity, and conflict in Somalia. Recent climate data and forecasts paint a concerning picture: the rainfall probabilistic forecast for April- June 2024 indicates a high likelihood of above-normal rainfall across much of Somalia, thus increasing the flood risks. Concurrently, temperature forecasts project above-normal temperatures, potentially exacerbating drought conditions between the rainy seasons. Historical climatology data reveal Somalia’s vulnerability, with average temperatures ranging from 25°C to 30°C and significant seasonal variations affecting agriculture and water resources. These climate trends, combined with ongoing political instability and weak governance, have created a storm of challenges. This perspective explores how recurrent droughts and floods disrupt agricultural production, decimate livestock, and displace vulnerable populations, particularly those affecting rural and nomadic communities. It also examines how environmental stress exacerbates poverty and conflict, thereby creating a vicious cycle of vulnerability. This analysis draws on recent data on poverty rates, food expenditure patterns, and climate-related displacement, to illustrate the multifaceted nature of the crisis. Finally, this perspective proposed recommendations for building climate resilience, enhancing food security, and promoting sustainable development in Somalia, emphasizing the need for integrated approaches that combine immediate humanitarian assistance with long-term adaptation strategies.
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