气候变化及其对美国科罗拉多州灌溉玉米产量的积极和消极影响

Crops Pub Date : 2024-08-09 DOI:10.3390/crops4030026
Jorge A. Delgado, R. D’Adamo, Alexis H. Villacis, A. Halvorson, Catherine E. Stewart, Jeffrey Alwang, S. D. Del Grosso, Daniel K. Manter, B. Floyd
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引用次数: 0

摘要

人类的未来取决于玉米(Zea mays L.)等粮食安全关键种植系统能否成功适应包括气温变化在内的全球气候变化。我们利用 2001 年在科罗拉多州科林斯堡附近建立的长期研究地块以及该地区(县)的长期平均产量,监测气候变化对收获产量的影响。我们发现,灌溉玉米生长期(5 月至 9 月)的平均气温以每年 0.023°C 的速度上升,从 1900 年的 16.5°C 上升到 2019 年的 19.2°C(p < 0.001),但降水量没有变化(p = 0.897)。平均最低气温(p < 0.001)对产量有积极的预测作用。这种对温度的响应取决于氮肥施用量,施用中等肥料时响应最大。最高温度(p < 0.05)和生长度日(GDD;p < 0.01)也对产量有积极的预测作用。我们认为,这里观察到的温度升高带来的产量增加可能只适用于灌溉玉米,灌溉是减缓和适应气候变化的良好做法。然而,由于从 1949 年到 2019 年,盘面蒸发量显著增加(p < 0.001),预计未来该地区的旱地玉米产量将因气温升高而降水量不增加所带来的热量和水分压力而减少。这项研究表明,导致该地区气候不断变化的 GDD 和最低气温的增加是促使该地区灌溉系统产量提高的重要参数。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
Climate Change and Its Positive and Negative Impacts on Irrigated Corn Yields in a Region of Colorado (USA)
The future of humanity depends on successfully adapting key cropping systems for food security, such as corn (Zea mays L.), to global climatic changes, including changing air temperatures. We monitored the effects of climate change on harvested yields using long-term research plots that were established in 2001 near Fort Collins, Colorado, and long-term average yields in the region (county). We found that the average temperature for the growing period of the irrigated corn (May to September) has increased at a rate of 0.023 °C yr−1, going from 16.5 °C in 1900 to 19.2 °C in 2019 (p < 0.001), but precipitation did not change (p = 0.897). Average minimum (p < 0.001) temperatures were positive predictors of yields. This response to temperature depended on N fertilizer rates, with the greatest response at intermediate fertilizer rates. Maximum (p < 0.05) temperatures and growing degree days (GDD; p < 0.01) were also positive predictors of yields. We propose that the yield increases with higher temperatures observed here are likely only applicable to irrigated corn and that irrigation is a good climate change mitigation and adaptation practice. However, since pan evaporation significantly increased from 1949 to 2019 (p < 0.001), the region’s dryland corn yields are expected to decrease in the future from heat and water stress associated with increasing temperatures and no increases in precipitation. This study shows that increases in GDD and the minimum temperatures that are contributing to a changing climate in the area are important parameters that are contributing to higher yields in irrigated systems in this region.
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