2018-2022年在印度尼西亚证券交易所上市的科技行业公司股票估值分析

Queen Umbaran, Ana Noveria, S. Damayanti
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引用次数: 0

摘要

2018年,印尼股票市场经历了IPO热潮,首次公开募股(IPO)的公司数量大幅增加。未来几年,印尼 IPO 市场将继续增长,每年将有不少于 50 家公司上市,使印尼自 2018 年起成为东南亚最大的 IPO 市场。2018-2022 年间,印尼 IPO 主要集中在四个行业:消费、物业与房地产、基础材料和技术。虽然只是第四大 IPO 行业,但该行业大幅增长了 240%,科技公司 IPO 交易募集的资金占 2018-2022 年 IPO 募集资金总额的 36%。然而,经过几年的交易,24 家科技板块公司中只有 3 家的股价高于其首次发行价和首个交易日的收盘价。尽管规模和市值不小,但股价下跌在 2018-2023 年上市的科技行业公司中分布均匀。本研究旨在评估2018-2022年上市的科技板块公司的价值,分析其当前股价与公司真实价值相比是被低估还是被高估。本研究从相对价值和绝对价值两个方面对公司价值进行分析。通过可比公司分析对各样本公司进行相对估值,通过贴现现金流分析进行绝对估值。本研究的样本包括 2018-2022 年间首次公开募股的 22 家科技行业公司。本研究使用的数据是从各样本公司的官方网站、印尼证券交易所和彭博终端收集的二手数据。根据可比公司分析得出的相对估值,NFCX、PGJO、CASH、DCII、EDGE、UVCR、RUNS、WGSH 和 WIRG 目前的股价在市场上被高估。另一方面,DIVA、LUCK、HDIT、TFAS、DMMX、GLVA、WIFI、ZYRX、BUKA、GOTO、AXIO、BELI 和 NINE 目前的股价被市场低估。此外,根据贴现现金流分析进行的绝对估值,NFCX、TFAS、DMMX、PGJO、CASH、DCII、EDGE、RUNS、WIRG 和 BELI 的当前股价被市场高估,而 WGSH 的市场估值合理。另一方面,DIVA、LUCK、HDIT、GLVA、WIFI、ZYRX、UVCR、BUKA、GOTO、AXIO 和 NINE 目前的股价被市场低估。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
Stock Valuation Analysis of Technology Sector Companies Listed in Indonesia Stock Exchange in the Year 2018-2022
In the year 2018, Indonesia’s equity market experienced an IPO boom where there is a significant increase in the number of companies who went through initial public offering (IPO). In the next years, Indonesia IPO market continue to grow with no less than 50 companies going public each year, rendering Indonesia as the biggest IPO market in Southeast Asia since 2018. Indonesian IPO within the year 2018-2022 is dominated by four sectors, consumer, properties & real estate, basic materials, and technology. Though only the fourth largest IPO sector, the sector grew significantly by 240% and funds raised from technology companies IPO deals comprises 36% of total funds raised from IPO in 2018-2022. However, after a few years of trading, only 3 out of 24 technology sectors company are trading above their initial offering price and closing price of the first trading day. The decline in share price spreads evenly across the technology sectors companies that went public in 2018-2023 despite size and market capitalization. This research aimed to evaluate the values of technology sector companies who went public in the year 2018-2022 and analyze whether their current share price is undervalued or overvalued compared to the true value of the company. This study analyzed two aspects of company value, the relative value and the absolute value. The relative valuation of each sample company is conducted through comparable companies analysis and absolute valuation is conducted through discounted cash flows analysis. The sample of this research comprised of 22 technology sector companies that went through IPO within the year 2018-2022. The data used in this research is secondary data collected from the official website of each sample companies, Indonesia Stock Exchange, and Bloomberg Terminal. Based on the relative valuation conducted through comparable companies analysis, the current share price of NFCX, PGJO, CASH, DCII, EDGE, UVCR, RUNS, WGSH, and WIRG are overvalued in the market. On the other hand, the current share price of DIVA, LUCK, HDIT, TFAS, DMMX, GLVA, WIFI, ZYRX, BUKA, GOTO, AXIO, BELI, and NINE are undervalued in the market. Furthermore, based on the absolute valuation conducted through discounted cash flows analysis, the current share price of NFCX, TFAS, DMMX, PGJO, CASH, DCII, EDGE, RUNS, WIRG, and BELI are overvalued in the market and WGSH is fair valued in the market. On the other hand, the current share price of DIVA, LUCK, HDIT, GLVA, WIFI, ZYRX, UVCR, BUKA, GOTO, AXIO, and NINE are undervalued in the market.
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