2020 年 3 月在西班牙博里亚纳爆发的 COVID-19 病例的漏报:横断面研究

Salvador Domènech-Montoliu, M. R. Pac-Sa, Diego Sala-Trull, Alba Del Rio-González, Manuel Sánchez-Urbano, Paloma Satorres-Martinez, Roser Blasco-Gari, Juan Casanova-Suarez, M. Gil-Fortuño, Laura López-Diago, Cristina Notari-Rodríguez, Oscar Pérez-Olaso, M. Romeu-García, Raquel Ruíz-Puig, I. Aleixandre-Górriz, Carmen Domènech-León, A. Arnedo-Pena
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摘要

确定流行病的病例数是流行病监测的首要职能。在 COVID-19 第一波疫情中,许多地方都出现了严重的病例漏报现象。为了估计 2020 年 3 月在 Borriana(西班牙巴伦西亚社区)爆发的 COVID-19 病例的漏报情况,我们于 2020 年 6 月对公共卫生登记簿进行了一项横断面研究。研究采用了逻辑回归模型。疫情中通过抗 SARS-CoV-2 血清学确诊的 468 例有症状的 COVID-19 病例中,报告了 36 例(7.7%),漏报比例为 92.3%(95% 置信区间 [CI],89.5-94.6%),每报告一例就有 13 例未报告。由于检测能力有限,而且是按照国家规程进行,因此主要只报告了 SARS-CoV-2 聚合酶链反应阳性病例。与漏报相关的重要因素包括:没有 COVID-19 疾病的医疗救助,调整后的几率比 [aOR] 为 10.83(95% CI 2.49-47.11);没有慢性疾病,aOR = 2.81(95% CI 1.28-6.17);社会中下层,aOR = 3.12(95% CI 1.42-6.85);年龄较小,aOR = 0.97(95% CI 0.94-0.99);病程较短,aOR = 0.98(95% CI 0.97-0.99)。为改进对未来流行病的监测,建议采用新的方法。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
Underreporting of Cases in the COVID-19 Outbreak of Borriana (Spain) during Mass Gathering Events in March 2020: A Cross-Sectional Study
Determining the number of cases of an epidemic is the first function of epidemiological surveillance. An important underreporting of cases was observed in many locations during the first wave of the COVID-19 pandemic. To estimate this underreporting in the COVID-19 outbreak of Borriana (Valencia Community, Spain) in March 2020, a cross-sectional study was performed in June 2020 querying the public health register. Logistic regression models were used. Of a total of 468 symptomatic COVID-19 cases diagnosed in the outbreak through anti-SARS-CoV-2 serology, 36 cases were reported (7.7%), resulting in an underreporting proportion of 92.3% (95% confidence interval [CI], 89.5–94.6%), with 13 unreported cases for every reported case. Only positive SARS-CoV-2 polymerase chain reaction cases were predominantly reported due to a limited testing capacity and following a national protocol. Significant factors associated with underreporting included no medical assistance for COVID-19 disease, with an adjusted odds ratio [aOR] of 10.83 (95% CI 2.49–47.11); no chronic illness, aOR = 2.81 (95% CI 1.28–6.17); middle and lower social classes, aOR = 3.12 (95% CI 1.42–6.85); younger age, aOR = 0.97 (95% CI 0.94–0.99); and a shorter duration of illness, aOR = 0.98 (95% CI 0.97–0.99). To improve the surveillance of future epidemics, new approaches are recommended.
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