研究如何将制裁对伊朗石化工业造成的威胁转化为经济机遇,并调查制裁期间伊朗石化工业的增长速度

Mohammad Ghazanfari Shabankareh, Ali Shesh Bulookii, Mojtaba Kord
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引用次数: 0

摘要

本研究旨在探讨将制裁对伊朗石化产业造成的威胁转化为经济机遇的方法,并调查制裁期间伊朗石化产业的增长率。定性研究部分采用内容分析和半结构式访谈两种方法,定量研究部分采用调查法。定性部分的参与者是过去 20 年中所有已发表的相关研究报告的内容,并对通过非概率抽样法选出的专家进行半结构化访谈。在定量部分,统计对象包括活跃在伊朗石化行业(尤其是伊朗阿萨卢耶地区)的经理、主管和专家,抽样方法为非概率抽样法。研究结果研究结果表明,根据对所选研究的审查,制裁对伊朗石化行业造成的潜在风险包括 5 个主要风险(营销、财务、供应和采购、技术和生产)和 26 个相关次级风险。此外,对上述风险的排序显示,在主要风险中,排名最高的是金融风险,而在次级风险中,排名最高的是交易成本的增加和合同义务履行的中断。研究局限性/意义对制裁期间伊朗石化行业业绩(生产、出口和外汇)增长率的调查显示,在审查期间,生产量呈增长趋势(增长了 68% 以上)。原创性/价值介绍和研究制裁阴影下伊朗石化工业化威胁为经济机遇的方法,这些方法可用于能源领域受制裁的其他活跃行业。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
Examining the methods of converting the threats caused by sanctions on Iran’s petrochemical industry to economic opportunities and investigating the growth rate of Iran’s petrochemical industry during sanction
Purpose This study aims to examine the methods of converting the threats caused by sanctions on Iran’s petrochemical industry to economic opportunities and investigating the growth rate of Iran’s petrochemical industry during sanctions. Design/methodology/approach The present research was descriptive-exploratory and the research method was based on a mixed research strategy. In the qualitative part, two methods of content analysis and semistructured interview were used and in the quantitative part, the survey method was used. The participants of the qualitative part were the content of all related published researches that have been published in the past 20 years and to conduct a semistructured interview with experts that were selected by nonprobability sampling method. In the quantitative part, the statistical population, there were including managers, supervisors and experts active in the Iran’s petrochemical industry (especially in Asaluyeh area of Iran), the sampling method was nonprobability of the type available. Findings The findings of the research showed that the potential risks resulting from the sanctions on Iran’s petrochemical industry from the review of the selected researches include 5 main risks (marketing, financial, supply and procurement, technological and production) and 26 related subrisks. Also, the ranking of the mentioned risks showed that among the main risks, the highest rank is related to the financial risk and among the subrisks, the increase in transaction costs and disruption in the implementation of contractual obligations have the highest rank. Research limitations/implications The investigation of the growth rate of Iran’s petrochemical industry during the sanctions in terms of performance (production, export and foreign exchange) showed that the amount of production has gone through a growing trend during the period under review (it has grown by more than 68%). Also, the amount of exports in the investigated time period has been growing (it has grown by more than 70%) and finally, the amount of foreign exchange in this time period has experienced growth (more than 58% growth). Originality/value Introducing and examining methods of turning threats into economic opportunities in Iran’s petrochemical industry under the shadow of sanctions, which can be used in other active industries under sanctions in the energy field.
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