Objective Measures of Cardiometabolic Risk and Advanced Fibrosis Risk Progression in Primary Care Patients With Metabolic Dysfunction-Associated Steatotic Liver Disease

Background

We examined the association of objective measures of cardiometabolic risk with progression to a high-risk for advanced fibrosis in patients with metabolic dysfunction-associated steatotic liver disease (MASLD) at initially low- and indeterminate-risk for advanced fibrosis.

Methods

We performed a retrospective cohort study of primary care patients with MASLD between 2012 and 2021. We evaluated patients with MASLD and low- or indeterminate-risk Fibrosis-4 Index (FIB-4) scores and followed them until the outcome of a high-risk FIB-4 (≥2.67), or the end of the study period. Exposures of interest were body mass index, systolic blood pressure, hemoglobin A1c, cholesterol, estimated glomerular filtration rate, and smoking status. Variables were categorized by the threshold for primary care therapy intensification. Unadjusted and adjusted Cox regression models were developed for the outcome of time to a high-risk FIB-4 value.

Results

The cohort included 1347 patients with a mean follow-up of 3.6 years (SD 2.7). Of the cohort, 258 (19%) had a subsequent FIB-4 > 2.67. In the fully adjusted Cox regression models, mean systolic blood pressure ≥ 150 mm Hg (1.57; 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.02-2.41) and glomerular filtration rate ≤ 59 ml/min (hazard ratio 2.78; 95%CI 2.17-3.58) were associated with an increased hazard of a high-risk FIB-4, while receiving a statin prescription (hazard ratio 0.51; 95%CI 0.39-0.66) was associated with a lower risk.

Conclusions

Nearly 1 in 5 primary care patients with MASLD transitioned to a high-risk FIB-4 score during 3.6 years of follow-up, and uncontrolled blood pressure and reduced kidney function were associated with an increased hazard of a FIB-4 at high-risk for advanced fibrosis.