Factors associated with precancerous stomach lesions and progresion: A 7-year multi-center prospective cohort study on the low incidence of gastric cancer in central Saudi Arabia.

Background: In Saudi Arabia (SA) no data are available on precancerous stomach lesions (PSLs) or the associated risk factors. We aimed to identify PSLs and investigate factors associated with PSLs and their progression.

Methods: This 7-year prospective study screened for PSLs in asymptomatic Saudi patients aged 45-75 years in central SA ( n = 35,640). Those who had high-sensitivity guaiac fecal occult blood tests (HSgFOBT+) and negative colonoscopy results ( n = 1242) were subjected to upper GI endoscopy to identify PSLs and were followed up every 3 years or earlier, depending on the type of PSL. Factors associated with PSLs were investigated.

Results: The 7-year participation rate was 86.9% (1080/1242). The 7-year prevalence of PSLs was 30.9% (334/1080). The incidence rate of PSLs was 134 new cases/100,000 population/year, total population at risk - 35,640 and 44.3 new cases/1,000 persons/year among the 1080 participants with HSgFOBT+ and negative colonoscopy results. Among the 334 participants with PSLs, 8 (2.4%) had neoplastic progression to GC during the surveillance period. Age, Helicobacter pylori infection, smoking status, a diet with preserved salty foods, low income, and a family history of GC were associated with PSLs.

Conclusions: The incidence of GC is low in central SA, but screening for PSLs among participants with HSgFOBT+ and negative colonoscopy findings may contribute to the early detection and subsequent treatment of GC. HP eradication, not smoking, normal body weight, and adhering to a healthy diet seem to be potential factors associated with the development of PSLs. Further studies are needed to search if such interventions would decrease the incidence of PSLs and progression to early GC.