日本的人口困境:应对流行病后的人口减少。

IF 1.5 Q2 MEDICINE, GENERAL & INTERNAL
JMA journal Pub Date : 2024-07-16 Epub Date: 2024-06-03 DOI:10.31662/jmaj.2024-0010
Yudai Kaneda, Erika Yamashita, Uiri Kaneda, Tetsuya Tanimoto, Akihiko Ozaki
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引用次数: 0

摘要

近年来,日本面临着严重的人口危机,2019 年冠状病毒病(COVID-19)大流行进一步加剧了这一危机。到 2022 年,日本人口减少了 1.5%,与其他七国集团国家形成鲜明对比,在经济合作与发展组织(OECD)国家中超额死亡率最高。这一危机的主要原因是人口老龄化,日本的老龄化率高达 29.9%,是同类国家中最高的。以岸田文雄首相为首的日本政府提出了旨在应对这些挑战的政策,重点是提高生育率。尽管做出了这些努力,但一项循证决策(EBPM)分析显示,对生育率的预期影响微乎其微,据估计,到 2060 年,财政干预措施只能使人口略有增加。此外,分析还强调需要采取更全面的方法,指出解决性别规范和工作场所文化等社会问题可能是可持续解决日本人口挑战的关键。这强调了日本需要在考虑财政政策的同时,考虑更广泛的社会变革,以有效地应对人口减少问题。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
Japan's Demographic Dilemma: Navigating the Postpandemic Population Decline.

In recent years, Japan has faced a significant demographic crisis, which was further exacerbated by the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic. By 2022, the country experienced a 1.5% decrease in population, which is in contrast to other G7 nations, and had the highest rate of excess mortality among Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) countries. This crisis is mainly attributed to aging population, with Japan's aging rate reaching 29.9%, the highest among its peer countries. The Japanese government, led by Prime Minister Fumio Kishida, has proposed policies aimed at addressing these challenges, focusing on increasing fertility rates. Despite these efforts, an evidence-based policymaking (EBPM) analysis reveals that the anticipated impact on fertility rates is marginal, with financial interventions estimated to yield only a slight population increase by 2060. Furthermore, the analysis highlighted the need for a more comprehensive approach, indicating that addressing societal issues such as gender norms and workplace culture might be crucial for a sustainable solution to Japan's demographic challenges. This emphasizes the need for Japan to consider broader societal changes alongside fiscal policies to effectively combat its demographic decline.

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