Development of a scoring system to predict local recurrence in brain metastases following complete resection and observation.

Purpose: Postoperative stereotactic radiosurgery to the resection cavity in patients with brain metastases is guideline-recommended therapy. However, Japanese Clinical Oncology Group 0504 study showed that postoperative observation could be a therapeutic option in patients with completed resected brain metastases. We hereby investigated the incidence and risk factors for local recurrence after complete resection without immediate radiotherapy and developed a scoring system for its prediction.

Methods: We included 53 patients with 54 brain metastases, who underwent complete resection between January 2016 and December 2021. We identified risk factors for local recurrence and developed a scoring system to predict it using the extracted risk factors, by assigning one point to each risk factor and calculating the total scores for each patient. We evaluated the correlation between the prognostic score and time to local recurrence.

Results: Local recurrence occurred in 37 of 54 tumors (68.5%), with a median follow-up duration of 21.0 months. The median time to local recurrence was 5.1 months. Univariate and multivariate analyses revealed that non-lung adenocarcinoma, infratentorial tumors, and no postoperative systemic therapy were identified as risk factors for local recurrence (non-lung adenocarcinoma, p = 0.035; infratentorial tumors, p = 0.044; and no postoperative systemic therapy, p = 0.0069). A score ≥ 2 showed a median time to local recurrence of 2.1 months, starkly contrasting with 30.8 months for a score ≤ 1 (p = 0.0002).

Conclusions: Non-lung adenocarcinoma, infratentorial tumors, and no postoperative systemic therapy were risk factors for local recurrence. Our scoring system can predict local recurrence, thus potentially aiding treatment decisions.