2023 年至 2028 年意大利市场多发性硬化症处方药支出预测：Oracle 项目结果。

IF 3.9 3区医学 Q1 CLINICAL NEUROLOGY

Neurology and Therapy Pub Date : 2024-10-01 Epub Date: 2024-08-02 DOI:10.1007/s40120-024-00644-3

Damiano Paolicelli, Giovanna Borriello, Raffaella Clerici, Elena Colombo, Davide Croce, Emanuele D'Amico, Nicola De Rossi, Alessia Di Sapio, Giuseppe Fenu, Davide Maimone, Girolama A Marfia, Marcello Moccia, Paola Perini, Maria G Piscaglia, Lorenzo Razzolini, Massimo Riccaboni, Elisabetta Signoriello, Gianluca Agostoni, Alberto Farina, Margaret Mondino, Francesco Berruto, Alessia Tettamanti, Francesca Donnaloja, Carla Tortorella

{"title":"2023 年至 2028 年意大利市场多发性硬化症处方药支出预测：Oracle 项目结果。","authors":"Damiano Paolicelli, Giovanna Borriello, Raffaella Clerici, Elena Colombo, Davide Croce, Emanuele D'Amico, Nicola De Rossi, Alessia Di Sapio, Giuseppe Fenu, Davide Maimone, Girolama A Marfia, Marcello Moccia, Paola Perini, Maria G Piscaglia, Lorenzo Razzolini, Massimo Riccaboni, Elisabetta Signoriello, Gianluca Agostoni, Alberto Farina, Margaret Mondino, Francesco Berruto, Alessia Tettamanti, Francesca Donnaloja, Carla Tortorella","doi":"10.1007/s40120-024-00644-3","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"Introduction: Multiple sclerosis (MS) is a chronic neurodegenerative disease that leads to impaired cognitive function and accumulation of disability, with significant socioeconomic burden. Serious unmet need in the context of managing MS has given rise to ongoing research efforts, leading to the launch of new drugs planned for the near future, and subsequent concerns about the sustainability of healthcare systems. This study assessed the changes in the Italian MS market and their impact on the expenditures of the Italian National Healthcare Service between 2023 and 2028.Methods: A horizon-scanning model was developed to estimate annual expenditure from 2023 to 2028. Annual expenditure for MS was calculated by combining the number of patients treated with each product (clinical inputs) and the yearly costs of therapy (economic inputs). Baseline inputs (2020-2022) were collected from IQVIA® real-world data, while input estimation for the 5-year forecast was integrated with analog analyses and the insights of clinicians and former payers.Results: The number of equivalent patients treated in 2028 in Italy was estimated at around 67,000, with an increase of 10% versus 2022. In terms of treatment pattern evolution, first-line treatments are expected to reduce their shares from 47% in 2022 to 27% in 2028, and Bruton tyrosine kinase inhibitors are expected to reach 23% of patient shares. Overall, expenditure for MS is estimated to decrease from €721 million in 2022 to €551 million in 2028, mainly due to losses of exclusivity and renegotiation of drug prices.Conclusion: Despite the increase in the number of patients treated for MS and the launch of new molecules that will reach high market penetration, the model confirmed sustainability for the Italian National Healthcare Service.","PeriodicalId":19216,"journal":{"name":"Neurology and Therapy","volume":" ","pages":"1415-1430"},"PeriodicalIF":3.9000,"publicationDate":"2024-10-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC11393242/pdf/","citationCount":"0","resultStr":"{\"title\":\"Predicted Expenditure for Prescription Drugs for Multiple Sclerosis in the Italian Market Between 2023 and 2028: Results of the Oracle Project.\",\"authors\":\"Damiano Paolicelli, Giovanna Borriello, Raffaella Clerici, Elena Colombo, Davide Croce, Emanuele D'Amico, Nicola De Rossi, Alessia Di Sapio, Giuseppe Fenu, Davide Maimone, Girolama A Marfia, Marcello Moccia, Paola Perini, Maria G Piscaglia, Lorenzo Razzolini, Massimo Riccaboni, Elisabetta Signoriello, Gianluca Agostoni, Alberto Farina, Margaret Mondino, Francesco Berruto, Alessia Tettamanti, Francesca Donnaloja, Carla Tortorella\",\"doi\":\"10.1007/s40120-024-00644-3\",\"DOIUrl\":null,\"url\":null,\"abstract\":\"Introduction: Multiple sclerosis (MS) is a chronic neurodegenerative disease that leads to impaired cognitive function and accumulation of disability, with significant socioeconomic burden. Serious unmet need in the context of managing MS has given rise to ongoing research efforts, leading to the launch of new drugs planned for the near future, and subsequent concerns about the sustainability of healthcare systems. This study assessed the changes in the Italian MS market and their impact on the expenditures of the Italian National Healthcare Service between 2023 and 2028.Methods: A horizon-scanning model was developed to estimate annual expenditure from 2023 to 2028. Annual expenditure for MS was calculated by combining the number of patients treated with each product (clinical inputs) and the yearly costs of therapy (economic inputs). Baseline inputs (2020-2022) were collected from IQVIA® real-world data, while input estimation for the 5-year forecast was integrated with analog analyses and the insights of clinicians and former payers.Results: The number of equivalent patients treated in 2028 in Italy was estimated at around 67,000, with an increase of 10% versus 2022. In terms of treatment pattern evolution, first-line treatments are expected to reduce their shares from 47% in 2022 to 27% in 2028, and Bruton tyrosine kinase inhibitors are expected to reach 23% of patient shares. Overall, expenditure for MS is estimated to decrease from €721 million in 2022 to €551 million in 2028, mainly due to losses of exclusivity and renegotiation of drug prices.Conclusion: Despite the increase in the number of patients treated for MS and the launch of new molecules that will reach high market penetration, the model confirmed sustainability for the Italian National Healthcare Service.\",\"PeriodicalId\":19216,\"journal\":{\"name\":\"Neurology and Therapy\",\"volume\":\" \",\"pages\":\"1415-1430\"},\"PeriodicalIF\":3.9000,\"publicationDate\":\"2024-10-01\",\"publicationTypes\":\"Journal Article\",\"fieldsOfStudy\":null,\"isOpenAccess\":false,\"openAccessPdf\":\"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC11393242/pdf/\",\"citationCount\":\"0\",\"resultStr\":null,\"platform\":\"Semanticscholar\",\"paperid\":null,\"PeriodicalName\":\"Neurology and Therapy\",\"FirstCategoryId\":\"3\",\"ListUrlMain\":\"https://doi.org/10.1007/s40120-024-00644-3\",\"RegionNum\":3,\"RegionCategory\":\"医学\",\"ArticlePicture\":[],\"TitleCN\":null,\"AbstractTextCN\":null,\"PMCID\":null,\"EPubDate\":\"2024/8/2 0:00:00\",\"PubModel\":\"Epub\",\"JCR\":\"Q1\",\"JCRName\":\"CLINICAL NEUROLOGY\",\"Score\":null,\"Total\":0}","platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"Neurology and Therapy","FirstCategoryId":"3","ListUrlMain":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s40120-024-00644-3","RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"2024/8/2 0:00:00","PubModel":"Epub","JCR":"Q1","JCRName":"CLINICAL NEUROLOGY","Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

摘要

导言：多发性硬化症（MS）是一种慢性神经退行性疾病，会导致认知功能受损和残疾累积，给社会经济带来沉重负担。由于多发性硬化症治疗方面的需求严重得不到满足，导致研究工作持续进行，并计划在不久的将来推出新药，随之而来的是对医疗保健系统可持续性的担忧。本研究评估了意大利多发性硬化症市场的变化及其在 2023 年至 2028 年间对意大利国家医疗保健服务支出的影响：方法：开发了一个前景扫描模式，以估算 2023 年至 2028 年的年度支出。多发性硬化症的年度支出是通过结合使用每种产品治疗的患者人数（临床投入）和每年的治疗成本（经济投入）计算得出的。基线投入（2020-2022 年）从 IQVIA® 真实世界数据中收集，而 5 年预测的投入估算则结合了模拟分析以及临床医生和前付款人的见解：结果：据估计，2028 年意大利接受同等治疗的患者人数约为 67,000 人，与 2022 年相比增加了 10%。从治疗模式的演变来看，一线治疗的份额预计将从2022年的47%降至2028年的27%，而Bruton酪氨酸激酶抑制剂的患者份额预计将达到23%。总体而言，多发性硬化症的支出预计将从2022年的7.21亿欧元降至2028年的5.51亿欧元，这主要是由于专有权的丧失和药品价格的重新谈判：尽管治疗多发性硬化症的患者人数增加，新分子药物的推出也将达到较高的市场渗透率，但该模型证实了意大利国家医疗保健服务的可持续性。

本文章由计算机程序翻译，如有差异，请以英文原文为准。

查看原文本刊更多论文

Predicted Expenditure for Prescription Drugs for Multiple Sclerosis in the Italian Market Between 2023 and 2028: Results of the Oracle Project.

Introduction: Multiple sclerosis (MS) is a chronic neurodegenerative disease that leads to impaired cognitive function and accumulation of disability, with significant socioeconomic burden. Serious unmet need in the context of managing MS has given rise to ongoing research efforts, leading to the launch of new drugs planned for the near future, and subsequent concerns about the sustainability of healthcare systems. This study assessed the changes in the Italian MS market and their impact on the expenditures of the Italian National Healthcare Service between 2023 and 2028.

Methods: A horizon-scanning model was developed to estimate annual expenditure from 2023 to 2028. Annual expenditure for MS was calculated by combining the number of patients treated with each product (clinical inputs) and the yearly costs of therapy (economic inputs). Baseline inputs (2020-2022) were collected from IQVIA^® real-world data, while input estimation for the 5-year forecast was integrated with analog analyses and the insights of clinicians and former payers.

Results: The number of equivalent patients treated in 2028 in Italy was estimated at around 67,000, with an increase of 10% versus 2022. In terms of treatment pattern evolution, first-line treatments are expected to reduce their shares from 47% in 2022 to 27% in 2028, and Bruton tyrosine kinase inhibitors are expected to reach 23% of patient shares. Overall, expenditure for MS is estimated to decrease from €721 million in 2022 to €551 million in 2028, mainly due to losses of exclusivity and renegotiation of drug prices.

Conclusion: Despite the increase in the number of patients treated for MS and the launch of new molecules that will reach high market penetration, the model confirmed sustainability for the Italian National Healthcare Service.

求助全文

通过发布文献求助，成功后即可免费获取论文全文。去求助

来源期刊

Neurology and Therapy CLINICAL NEUROLOGY-

CiteScore

5.40

自引率

8.10%

发文量

103

审稿时长

6 weeks

期刊介绍： Aims and Scope Neurology and Therapy aims to provide reliable and inclusive, rapid publication for all therapy related research for neurological indications, supporting the timely dissemination of research with a global reach, to help advance scientific discovery and support clinical practice. Neurology and Therapy is an international, open access, peer reviewed, rapid publication journal dedicated to the publication of high-quality clinical (all phases), observational, real-world and health outcomes research around the discovery, development, and use of neurological and psychiatric therapies, (also covering surgery and devices). Studies relating to diagnosis, pharmacoeconomics, public health, quality of life, and patient care, management, and education are also welcomed. The journal is of interest to a broad audience of healthcare professionals and publishes original research, reviews, case reports, trial designs, communications and letters. The journal is read by a global audience and receives submissions from all over the world. Neurology and Therapy will consider all scientifically sound research be it positive, confirmatory or negative data. Submissions are welcomed whether they relate to an international and/or a country-specific audience, something that is crucially important when researchers are trying to target more specific patient populations. This inclusive approach allows the journal to assist in the dissemination of all scientifically and ethically sound research. Rapid Publication The journal’s rapid publication timelines aim for a peer review decision within 2 weeks of submission. If an article is accepted, it will be published online 3-4 weeks from acceptance. These rapid timelines are achieved through the combination of a dedicated in-house editorial team, who closely manage article workflow, and an extensive Editorial and Advisory Board who assist with rapid peer review. This allows the journal to support the rapid dissemination of research, whilst still providing robust peer review. Combined with the journal’s open access model, this allows for the rapid and efficient communication of the latest research and reviews to support scientific discovery and clinical practice. Open Access All articles published by Neurology and Therapy are open access. Personal Service The journal’s dedicated in-house editorial team offer a personal “concierge service” meaning that authors will always have a personal point of contact able to update them on the status of their manuscript. The editorial team check all manuscripts to ensure that articles conform to the most recent COPE and ICMJE publishing guidelines. This supports the publication of ethically sound and transparent research. We also encourage pre-submission enquiries and are always happy to provide a confidential assessment of manuscripts. Digital Features and Plain Language Summaries Neurology and Therapy offers a range of additional features designed to increase the visibility, readership and educational value of the journal’s content. Each article is accompanied by key summary points, giving a time-efficient overview of the content to a wide readership. Articles may be accompanied by plain language summaries to assist readers who have some knowledge of, but not in-depth expertise in, the area to understand the scientific content and overall implications of the article. The journal also provides the option to include various types of digital features including animated abstracts, video abstracts, slide decks, audio slides, instructional videos, infographics, podcasts and animations. All additional features are peer reviewed to the same high standard as the article itself. If you consider that your paper would benefit from the inclusion of a digital feature, please let us know. Our editorial team are able to create high-quality slide decks and infographics in-house, and video abstracts through our partner Research Square, and would be happy to assist in any way we can. For further information about digital features, please contact the journal editor (see ‘Contact the Journal’ for email address), and see the ‘Guidelines for digital features and plain language summaries’ document under ‘Submission guidelines’. For examples of digital features please visit our showcase page https://springerhealthcare.com/expertise/publishing-digital-features/ Publication Fees Upon acceptance of an article, authors will be required to pay the mandatory Rapid Service Fee of €5250/$6000/£4300. The journal will consider fee discounts and waivers for developing countries and this is decided on a case-by-case basis. Peer Review Process Upon submission, manuscripts are assessed by the editorial team to ensure they fit within the aims and scope of the journal and are also checked for plagiarism. All suitable submissions are then subject to a comprehensive single-blind peer review. Reviewers are selected based on their relevant expertise and publication history in the subject area. The journal has an extensive pool of editorial and advisory board members who have been selected to assist with peer review based on the afore-mentioned criteria. At least two extensive reviews are required to make the editorial decision, with the exception of some article types such as Commentaries, Editorials and Letters which are generally reviewed by one member of the Editorial Board. Where reviews conflict, an Editorial Board Member will be contacted for further advice and a presiding decision. Manuscripts are then either accepted, rejected or authors are required to make major or minor revisions (both reviewer comments and editorial comments may need to be addressed. Once a revised manuscript is re-submitted, it is assessed along with the responses to reviewer comments and if it has been adequately revised, it will be accepted for publication. Accepted manuscripts are then copyedited and typeset by the production team before online publication. Appeals against decisions following peer review are considered on a case-by-case basis and should be sent to the journal editor, and authors are welcome to make rebuttals against individual reviewer comments, if appropriate. Preprints We encourage posting of preprints of primary research manuscripts on preprint servers, authors'' or institutional websites, and open communications between researchers whether on community preprint servers or preprint commenting platforms. Posting of preprints is not considered prior publication and will not jeopardize consideration in our journals. Please see here for further information on preprint sharing: https://www.springer.com/gp/authors-editors/journal-author/journal-author-helpdesk/submission/1302#c16721550 Copyright Neurology and Therapy is published under the Creative Commons Attribution-Noncommercial License, which allows users to read, copy, distribute, and make derivative works for non-commercial purposes from the material, as long as the author of the original work is cited. The author assigns the exclusive right to any commercial use of the article to Springer. For more information about the Creative Commons Attribution-Noncommercial License, click here: http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/4.0. Contact For more information about the journal, including pre-submission enquiries, please contact managing editor Lydia Alborn at lydia.alborn@springer.com.