Exploring the role of cultivar, year and plot age in the incidence of esca and Eutypa dieback: Insights from 20 years of regional surveys in France

Grapevine trunk diseases cause yield losses and vine mortality in vineyards worldwide. However, there have been few quantitative studies evaluating grapevine dieback on a large spatial and temporal scale. Here, we consolidated and standardized databases from the 13 main wine regions of France, compiling records of leaf symptoms associated with esca and Eutypa dieback from 2082 plots and 36 cultivars over a 20‐year period. This large dataset was used (a) for quantitative analysis of the prevalence (number of plots with at least one symptomatic plant) and incidence (percentage of symptomatic plants) of esca and Eutypa dieback; and (b) to decipher the effects of cultivar, year and plot age on both the prevalence and incidence of esca leaf symptoms by temporal Bayesian modelling. Esca was present on a mean of 74 ± 2% plots annually, with an incidence of 3.1 ± 0.1%. Eutypa dieback occurred in 41 ± 3% of the plots, with an incidence of 1.4 ± 0.1%. Our modelling approach revealed that the cultivar had a significant impact on the prevalence of esca, but not on its incidence when prevalence is greater than zero. Esca prevalence remained stable, whereas esca incidence was higher than the mean value in six of the years after 2012. We also found a significant non‐linear effect of plot age, with 10‐ to 30‐year‐old plots significantly more susceptible, depending on the cultivar. This study clearly illustrates the importance of considering extensive and continuous monitoring to improve our understanding of the impact and evolution of crop diseases.