丹斯加德-奥斯赫格事件可变性概念建模的进展

IF 3.8 2区 地球科学 Q1 GEOSCIENCES, MULTIDISCIPLINARY
Jonathan Ortved Melcher, Sune Halkjær, Peter Ditlevsen, Peter L. Langen, Guido Vettoretti, Sune Olander Rasmussen
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引用次数: 0

摘要

摘要本研究介绍了一种新的动力系统模式,旨在捕捉丹斯加德-奥斯赫格(Dansgaard-Oeschger,DO)事件的高度非周期性。由于此类事件的持续时间长短不一,有的持续一个世纪左右,有的则长达数千年,而且尽管边界气候条件相似,但在较长 DO 事件之前会出现一些短的前兆事件,因此很难对其进行充分建模。我们的方法利用从斯托梅尔(Stommel)模型中推导出的简化二方程框架,整合了一个内部控制参数,作为南极底层水(AABW)形成的反馈参数。通过分析和数值方法,我们建立了一个合适的参数域,在这个参数域内,新调整的模型可以准确地复制冰芯数据汇总统计所描述的溶解氧事件的古气候记录。分析还表明,如果没有新的控制参数,模型就没有一个合适的参数域来再现冰芯记录中的各种事件特征。这项研究通过允许新模型的参数随时间变化,对驱动这些极为重要的气候现象的基本机制以及迫使它们发生变化的必要时间尺度提供了新的见解。这使得我们的模型能够前所未有地精确捕捉到一系列真实的 DO 事件,其时间特征与观测记录相吻合。这个完善的模型不仅增强了我们对溶解氧循环的理解,而且还展示了简单动力系统模拟复杂气候相互作用的潜力。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
Advances in conceptual modelling of the variable nature of Dansgaard-Oeschger events
Abstract. This study introduces a novel dynamical systems model designed to capture the highly non-periodic nature of Dansgaard-Oeschger (DO) events. Such events are difficult to model adequately due to their variable durations — some lasting around a century, while others span multiple millennia — and the occurrence of short precursor events that precede the longer DO events despite similar boundary climate conditions. Utilizing a simplified two-equation framework derived from the Stommel model, our approach integrates an internal control parameter which acts as a feedback parameter on the Antarctic Bottom Water (AABW) formation. Through both analytical and numerical methods, we establish a suitable parameter domain within which the newly adjusted models can accurately replicate the paleoclimatic records of DO events as described by summary statistics derived from ice-core data. The analysis also shows that without the novel control parameter, the model does not have a suitable parameter domain in which it can reproduce the wide range of event characteristics seen in the ice-core record. The study provides new insights into the underlying mechanisms driving these highly significant climate phenomena and the necessary timescale in which they are forced, by allowing the new model's parameters to vary through time. This allows our model to achieve unprecedented precision in capturing a realistic sequence of DO events with timing characteristics matching those of the observational record. This refined model not only enhances our understanding of the DO cycles but also demonstrates the potential of simple dynamical systems to simulate complex climate interactions.
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来源期刊
Climate of The Past
Climate of The Past 地学-气象与大气科学
CiteScore
7.40
自引率
14.00%
发文量
120
审稿时长
4-8 weeks
期刊介绍: Climate of the Past (CP) is a not-for-profit international scientific journal dedicated to the publication and discussion of research articles, short communications, and review papers on the climate history of the Earth. CP covers all temporal scales of climate change and variability, from geological time through to multidecadal studies of the last century. Studies focusing mainly on present and future climate are not within scope. The main subject areas are the following: reconstructions of past climate based on instrumental and historical data as well as proxy data from marine and terrestrial (including ice) archives; development and validation of new proxies, improvements of the precision and accuracy of proxy data; theoretical and empirical studies of processes in and feedback mechanisms between all climate system components in relation to past climate change on all space scales and timescales; simulation of past climate and model-based interpretation of palaeoclimate data for a better understanding of present and future climate variability and climate change.
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