Hydrocarbon-generating potential of the Middle Permian Lucaogou source rock in the eastern Junggar Basin, China

The Middle Permian Lucaogou Formation is the most significant source rock in the eastern Junggar Basin. Previous studies have confirmed its excellent hydrocarbon-generating potential in the Jimsar Sag. However, its potential in other areas of the eastern Junggar Basin remains uncertain. Based on total organic carbon and pyrolysis, organic petrology, hydrocarbon simulation experiments, basin simulation, and combined well-seismic coupling interpretation, this study systematically compares the hydrocarbon-generating potential of the Lucaogou source rock in the Jimsar Sag with other areas of the eastern Junggar Basin. It discusses the sedimentary environment of high-quality source rocks and depicts the distribution of practical source kitchens. The Lucaogou source rocks in the eastern Junggar Basin are oil-prone, dominated by type I–II kerogen, and generally classified as good to excellent source rocks. Nowadays, the area of the Lucaogou source rocks that have entered the main oil-generating window is approximately 11 × 10³ km². Except for the bulge area, the Lucaogou source rocks in the eastern Junggar Basin successively entered the hydrocarbon-generating threshold during the Jurassic and the main oil-generating window in the Cretaceous. The Lucaogou source rocks in the Jimsar Sag and other parts of the eastern Junggar Basin share similar biomarker fingerprints, characterized by relatively low ratios of Pr/Ph, Pr/n-C₁₇, Tm/C₃₀ hopane, C₁₉/C₂₀ tricyclic terpene, and C₂₄ tetracyclic terpene/C₂₆ tricyclic terpene, and high β-carotene content, gammacerane index, and Ts/Tm ratios. These characteristics reflect deposition in a strongly reducing brackish lacustrine environment with parental sources dominated by lower organisms such as algae and bacteria. Generally, the Lucaogou source rocks in the eastern Junggar Basin have an oil-generating intensity of more than 3 × 10⁶ t/km². Several oil-generating centers with an intensity of more than 5 × 10⁶ t/km² have developed in the front of the Bogda Mountain, Jimsar Sag, Dongdaohaizi Sag, Wucaiwan Sag, and Shazhang Fault Zone, covering a total area of approximately 12,500 km². These characteristics of the Lucaogou source rocks promise favorable potential for forming large and medium oil fields. The results further consolidated the oil and gas resources in the eastern Junggar Basin and provided valuable references for exploring future oil and gas fields.