传统超市数字平台用户流失预测研究

Honglei Yin, Yilei Pei
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摘要

本文利用机器学习算法的优势,开展分类预测实证研究,探索传统超市数字化平台的用户流失预测模型。以物美在线平台上的用户评价为数据源,以购买爱媛橙的用户信息为研究对象。从用户价值特征和评价特征两个维度出发,收集用户的购买信息,通过计算得到最近消费时间、消费次数、消费金额、评分和评论文字等五个特征数据。之后,基于机器学习算法 XGBoost 建立预测模型,预测用户流失趋势。通过对比分析特征变量在用户流失预测中的贡献度,根据月均消费次数、月均消费金额等关键特征变量划分流失用户类型,并提出相应的挽留策略。验证发现,评分和评论文本的情感对用户流失预测有显著影响。通过分析影响用户流失预测的重要变量,本文总结出两类流失用户,并针对需求较少和无需求用户制定了相应的留存策略。这对于减少数字平台用户流失,维护老用户,提高超市利润,实现超市健康可持续发展的目标具有重要意义。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
Research on User Churn Prediction of Traditional Supermarket Digital Platform
This paper uses the advantages of machine learning algorithms to conduct empirical research on classification prediction to explore the user churn prediction model of traditional supermarket digital platform. User reviews on the online platform of Wumart were used as the data source, and user information of Ehime Orange purchased was used as the research object. Starting from the two dimensions of user value characteristics and evaluation characteristics, the user's purchase information is collected, and five characteristic data such as the latest consumption time, consumption times, consumption amount, rating and review text are obtained by calculating the information. Later, a predictive model was built based on XGBoost, a machine learning algorithm, to predict the trend of user churn. By comparing and analyzing the contribution of characteristic variables in user churn prediction, the types of lost users are divided according to key characteristic variables such as average monthly consumption times and average consumption amount, and corresponding retention strategies are proposed. The validation found that the sentiment of the score and review text had a significant impact on user churn prediction. By analyzing the important variables affecting the prediction of user churn, this paper summarizes two types of churn users, and formulates corresponding retention strategies for users with less demand and no demand. This is of great significance for reducing the loss of digital platform users, maintaining old users, improving the profits of supermarkets, and achieving the goals of healthy and sustainable development of supermarkets.
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