揭示 2002-2017 年间咸海不断缩小与气候多变性之间错综复杂的联系

Climate Pub Date : 2024-07-18 DOI:10.3390/cli12070105
T. Berdimbetov, Buddhi Pushpawela, Nikita Murzintcev, S. Nietullaeva, Khusen Gafforov, Asiya Tureniyazova, Dauranbek Madetov
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引用次数: 0

摘要

咸海是中亚社会经济进步不可或缺的组成部分,但在过去几十年里,主要由于全球变暖和人类活动,咸海的生态发生了巨大变化。在这些变化中,盆地面积缩小,水位下降。本文重点对咸海的主要气候参数(如温度、降水量和潜在蒸散量)的空间变化进行了全面分析。此外,我们还利用 Landsat 卫星数据研究了 2002 年至 2017 年期间咸海生长季和非生长季季节性水域面积的变化,以及气候和人为因素对这些变化的影响。我们的研究结果表明,在调查期间,咸海西段的水域面积在暖季(R2 = 0.789)和冷季(R2 = 0.744)分别减少了 2.41 平方公里和 1.83 平方公里。暖季湖泊水量的减少可归因于当地气候的变化,因为季节性蓄水量变化与温度(潜在蒸散量)之间存在很强的负相关关系。相关分析表明,生长季节咸海北部的水量变化与温度呈显著正相关(R = 0.52),与降水呈不显著负相关(R = -0.22)。相反,在咸海西部和东部,生长季节的水量变化与温度呈明显负相关(R = -0.71 和 -0.62),与降水呈高度正相关(R = 0.71 和 0.55)。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
Unraveling the Intricate Links between the Dwindling Aral Sea and Climate Variability during 2002–2017
The Aral Sea is an indispensable component of the socio-economic progress of Central Asia but has undergone substantial ecological transformations over the last few decades, primarily due to global warming and human activities. Among these changes, the basin area has decreased, and water levels have dropped. This paper focuses on a comprehensive analysis of the spatial variation of key climate parameters, such as temperature, precipitation, and potential evapotranspiration over the Aral Sea. Moreover, we examined the transformation of seasonal water areas in the Aral Sea during the growing and non-growing seasons between 2002 and 2017 and the influence of climate and human factors on these changes using Landsat satellite data. Our results indicate that the western section of the Aral Sea has experienced a reduction in water area by 2.41 km2 and 1.83 km2 during the warm (R2 = 0.789) and cold (R2 = 0.744) seasons, respectively, over the investigated period. The decrease in lake water volume during the warm season can be attributed to local climate variations, as a strong negative correlation exists between seasonal water storage change and temperature (potential evapotranspiration). The correlation analysis shows that the water change in the northern part of the Aral Sea during the growing season has a significant positive correlation with temperature (R = 0.52) and an insignificant negative correlation with precipitation (R = −0.22). On the contrary, in the west and east parts of the Aral Sea, there is a significant negative correlation with temperature (R = −0.71 and −0.62) and a high positive correlation with precipitation (R = 0.71 and 0.55) during the growing season.
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