基于泊松隐马尔可夫模型的地震评估--中美洲和南美洲的案例

Pub Date : 2024-07-23 DOI:10.3390/stats7030047

Evangelia Georgakopoulou, T. Tsapanos, A. Makrides, Emmanuel Scordilis, Alex Karagrigoriou, Alexandra Papadopoulou, Vassilios Karastathis

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引用次数: 0

摘要

对中美洲和南美洲地区的地震活动性进行了研究，这些地区的构造非常引人关注。根据一些地震构造特征，将整个地区划分为 10 个地震带，这与之前发表的研究结果相同。本研究中使用的地震摘自国际地震中心的地震目录，时间跨度为 1900-2021 年，震源深度≤60 千米，震级≥4.5 级。根据 Reasenberg 技术剔除了前震和余震。本文仅限于评估覆盖中美洲和南美洲部分地区的地震带的地震发生概率，我们采用了隐马尔可夫模型（HMM）并应用了 EM 算法。

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Seismic Evaluation Based on Poisson Hidden Markov Models—The Case of Central and South America

A study of earthquake seismicity is undertaken over the areas of Central and South America, the tectonics of which are of great interest. The whole territory is divided into 10 seismic zones based on some seismotectonic characteristics, as in previously published studies. The earthquakes used in the present study are extracted from the catalogs of the International Seismological Center, cover the period of 1900–2021, and are restricted to shallow depths (≤60 km) and a magnitude M≥4.5. Fore- and aftershocks are removed according to Reasenberg’s technique. The paper confines itself to the evaluation of earthquake occurrence probabilities in the seismic zones covering parts of Central and South America, and we implement the hidden Markov model (HMM) and apply the EM algorithm.

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