How Does Digital Inclusive Finance Policy Affect the Carbon Emission Intensity of Industrial Land in the Yangtze River Economic Belt of China? Evidence from Intermediary and Threshold Effects

Digital inclusive finance (DIF) is a strategic tool that fosters the green transformation of the industrial economy. Based on the data from the 11 provinces and municipalities in the Yangtze River Economic Belt of China between 2012 and 2021, This paper utilizes the Tobit, intermediary effect, and threshold effect models to empirically study the impact of DIF on the industrial land carbon emission intensity (ILCEI). This paper reaches the following conclusions: (1) The ILCEI in the region revealed a downward trend during the study period. There are substantial differences in carbon ILCEI; higher upstream and lower downstream. The average ILCEI in the lower reach provinces is 0.5829 ton/m2 during the research period, while that in the upper reach region is 1.0104 ton/m2. (2) DIF has a significantly inhibitory effect on the ILCEI; this effect has nonlinear characteristics. The impact of DIF on ILCEI exhibits a marginally diminishing trend as the industrial land economic agglomeration degree improves. (3) Regarding the transmission mechanism, the level of industrial R&D investment plays a primary intermediary role in the impact of DIF on ILCEI. (4) Concerning control variables, foreign investment dependence and trade contribute significantly to inhibiting ILCEI. Lastly, this paper proposes a series of measures to promote DIF to fully utilize the emission reduction effect. The research outcomes have substantial implications for the sustainable development of industrial land.