多变量气候变化信号的出现

Andrew D. King, L. Harrington, Ed Hawkins, S. Paik, Ruby Lieber, Seung‐Ki Min, Alexander Borowiak
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引用次数: 0

摘要

相对于背景变化而言,气候变化信号的出现是了解当地变化及其后果的有用指标。研究发现了气候变化的新信号,特别是在以温度为基础的指数中,降水指标的信号较弱。在本研究中,我们采用气候模拟方法来研究历史时期出现的多元气候变化。我们使用季节性气温和降水观测数据,并应用西格玛相似性方法来证明,已经可以识别大规模的局部气候变化,尤其是在低纬度地区。相对于孤立地分析气温,多元方法将许多地区出现气候变化的时间提前了几十年。我们观察到,在全球变暖信号受到厄尔尼诺现象影响的年份,气候与 20 世纪初的偏差特别大。新出现的气候变化信号的纬度依赖性意味着,与最富裕地区相比,低收入国家经历的新出现的气候变化信号更早、更强。基于温度和降水极端指数的分析发现,信号较弱,出现的证据较少,但由于缺乏对赤道地区的长期观测而受到影响。本文提出的框架可扩展至归因和预测分析。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
Emergence of multivariate climate change signals
The emergence of a climate change signal relative to background variability is a useful metric for understanding local changes and their consequences. Studies have identified emergent signals of climate change, particularly in temperature-based indices with weaker signals found for precipitation metrics. In this study, we adapt climate analogue methods to examine multivariate climate change emergence over the historical period. We use seasonal temperature and precipitation observations and apply a sigma dissimilarity method to demonstrate that large local climate changes may already be identified, particularly in low-latitude regions. The multivariate methodology brings forward the time of emergence by several decades in many areas relative to analysing temperature in isolation. We observed particularly large departures from an early-20th century climate in years when the global warming signal is compounded by an El Niño-influence. The latitudinal dependence in the emergent climate change signal means that lower-income nations have experienced earlier and stronger emergent climate change signals than the wealthiest regions. Analysis based on temperature and precipitation extreme indices finds weaker signals and less evidence of emergence but is hampered by lack of long-running observations in equatorial areas. The framework developed here may be extended to attribution and projections analyses.
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