尼日利亚外国直接投资与失业率模型推论

Ikwuoche John David, Danjuma Idi
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引用次数: 0

摘要

本研究采用自回归分布滞后(ARDL)模型,探讨外国直接投资(FDI)对尼日利亚失业率(UPR)的影响。研究使用了 1985-2021 年期间的数据。对数据的初步评估包括应用滚动相关性来检验外国直接投资与失业率之间信号的显著性。随后,研究采用 ARDL 边界检验方法来检验外国直接投资和 UPR 之间的协整关系。此外,研究还利用误差修正模型(ECM)来探讨这些经济变量在短期内的因果关系。Augmented Dickey Fuller 单位根检验表明,变量在第一次差分(I(1))时达到静止。研究结果表明,5%的外国直接投资在长期内对 UPR 有显著影响,但在 10%的短期内并不显著。此外,所选的最佳拟合模型是 ARDL(1,1),但累积平方和图显示,取样期间的参数估计不稳定。结果表明,要想长期降低尼日利亚失业率并在短期内稳定失业率,就必须增加外国直接投资。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
Inference from Modelling FDI and Unemployment Rate in Nigeria
This research investigates foreign direct investment (FDI) impact on the unemployment rate (UPR) in Nigeria by employing an Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) model. The study made use of data from the period 1985-2021. Initial assessment of the data involved the application of rolling correlation to test the significance of signals between FDI and UPR. Subsequently, the research employs the ARDL bounds test methodology to examine cointegration among FDI and UPR. Additionally, an Error Correction Model (ECM) is utilized to explore the causal relationship between these economic variables in the short run. The Augmented Dickey Fuller unit root test suggests that the variables attain stationarity at first differences (I(1)). The findings indicate that at 5% FDI significantly impacted on UPR in the long run but not in the short run where it was significant at 10%. Also, the selected best fitted model for the sampled period is ARDL(1, 1) but the plot of the cumulative sum squared chart showed that the parameter estimates were unstable for the sampled period. The results suggest more investment in FDI is necessary for reducing Nigeria unemployment rate in the long run and stabilizing it in the short run.
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