All roads lead to Rome: Understanding the diffusion trajectories of innovation twins

This study conducts a comparison of the references and citations of two discoveries that were made simultaneously yet independently. The two discoveries, specifically ‘Inference of Population Structure Using Multilocus Genotype Data (IPSUMGD)’ and ‘Latent Dirichlet Allocation (LDA)’, are both significant academic publications in their respective fields. Although they share similar underlying concepts, they originate from different disciplines. Our objective is to analyse similarities and differences in the knowledge foundation and diffusion trajectories of these simultaneous discoveries, IPSUMGD and LDA, to further determine if a general pattern of successful innovation diffusion exists. The results indicate that the considerable similarity in the core ideas of IPSUMGD and LDA may be attributed to a strong disciplinary connection in their knowledge foundation, leading to overlapping diffusion processes. However, the divergence in thematic volatility and discipline distribution implies that IPSUMGD and LDA occupy distinct and independent diffusion spaces, which is crucial for their success. The citation cascade networks highlight the unique diffusion patterns of IPSUMGD and LDA, with IPSUMGD originating from the emergence of multiple high-impact nodes and LDA evolving through iterative innovation. The main path analysis reveals that both articles feature several key nodes in their diffusion processes, and the original authors have made substantial contributions to their long-term citation trajectories.