首席执行官党派偏见与管理层盈利预测偏差

IF 4.8 3区 管理学 Q1 BUSINESS, FINANCE
Michael D. Stuart, Jing Wang, Richard H. Willis
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引用次数: 0

摘要

研究认为,管理者的政治取向会影响他们的决策,并提出了政治联系假说和风险容忍度假说作为解释。我们将党派偏见作为政治取向影响经理人决策的另一种方式进行研究。党派偏见会导致党派倾向与美国总统一致的个人表达更乐观的经济预期。我们研究了经理人的年度盈利预测中是否存在党派偏见。我们发现,与其他首席执行官的公司相比,党派倾向与美国总统一致的首席执行官的公司发布的年度盈利预测更具乐观倾向。然而,能力较高的首席执行官不易受到党派偏见的影响。此外,我们还发现,高估客户需求会导致党派一致的首席执行官的预测过于乐观,并导致公司过度投资。此外,投资者未能对党派联盟首席执行官预测中的新闻进行打折,其公司预测后的异常回报率也较低。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。

CEO partisan bias and management earnings forecast bias

CEO partisan bias and management earnings forecast bias

Research concludes that managers’ political orientation influences their decision-making and offers the political connections and risk tolerance hypotheses as explanations. We investigate partisan bias as an additional way political orientation may influence managers’ decisions. Partisan bias results in individuals whose partisan orientation aligns with that of the US president expressing more optimistic economic expectations. We examine whether partisan bias is present in managers’ annual earnings forecasts. We find that firms with CEOs whose partisanship aligns with that of the US president issue more optimistically biased annual earnings forecasts than firms with other CEOs. Higher-ability CEOs, however, are less susceptible to partisan bias. Additionally, we find that overestimating customer demand contributes to the forecast over-optimism of partisan-aligned CEOs and results in greater firm overinvestment. Furthermore, investors fail to discount the news in forecasts of partisan-aligned CEOs, and their firms’ post-forecast abnormal returns are lower.

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来源期刊
Review of Accounting Studies
Review of Accounting Studies BUSINESS, FINANCE-
CiteScore
7.90
自引率
7.10%
发文量
82
期刊介绍: Review of Accounting Studies provides an outlet for significant academic research in accounting including theoretical, empirical, and experimental work. The journal is committed to the principle that distinctive scholarship is rigorous. While the editors encourage all forms of research, it must contribute to the discipline of accounting. The Review of Accounting Studies is committed to prompt turnaround on the manuscripts it receives.  For the majority of manuscripts the journal will make an accept-reject decision on the first round.  Authors will be provided the opportunity to revise accepted manuscripts in response to reviewer and editor comments; however, discretion over such manuscripts resides principally with the authors.  An editorial revise and resubmit decision is reserved for new submissions which are not acceptable in their current version, but for which the editor sees a clear path of changes which would make the manuscript publishable. Officially cited as: Rev Account Stud
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