多群体适应性 SIS 流行病的最小模型

Massimo A. Achterberg, Mattia Sensi, Sara Sottile
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引用次数: 0

摘要

我们提出了将 \emph{Achterberg and Sensi}\cite{achterbergsensi2022adaptive} 中研究的自适应 N-Interwined Mean-FieldApproximation (aNIMFA) 模型推广到异构社区网络。我们用基本繁殖数 ~$R_0$ 得到了系统均衡点的存在性和稳定性结果。在光约束条件下,我们证明基本繁殖数~R_0$等同于静态网络上 NIMFA 模型的基本繁殖数。基于数值模拟,我们证明了仅有两个群落就会出现周期性行为,这与仅有一个群落的情况形成了鲜明对比,后者的周期性被分析排除了。我们还发现,在密集网络中,打破群落间的连接比打破群落内的连接更能减少疾病爆发,但这两种策略对于链接较少的网络都是可行的。最后,我们强调,我们的适应性建模方法并不局限于 SIS 模型,它在流行病学的其他区间模型中也有巨大的应用潜力。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
A minimal model for multigroup adaptive SIS epidemics
We propose a generalization of the adaptive N-Intertwined Mean-Field Approximation (aNIMFA) model studied in \emph{Achterberg and Sensi} \cite{achterbergsensi2022adaptive} to a heterogeneous network of communities. In particular, the multigroup aNIMFA model describes the impact of both local and global disease awareness on the spread of a disease in a network. We obtain results on existence and stability of the equilibria of the system, in terms of the basic reproduction number~$R_0$. Under light constraints, we show that the basic reproduction number~$R_0$ is equivalent to the basic reproduction number of the NIMFA model on static networks. Based on numerical simulations, we demonstrate that with just two communities periodic behaviour can occur, which contrasts the case with only a single community, in which periodicity was ruled out analytically. We also find that breaking connections between communities is more fruitful compared to breaking connections within communities to reduce the disease outbreak on dense networks, but both strategies are viable to networks with fewer links. Finally, we emphasise that our method of modelling adaptivity is not limited to SIS models, but has huge potential to be applied in other compartmental models in epidemiology.
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