研究玻利维亚是否存在双赤字问题

IF 2.7 4区 管理学 Q2 BUSINESS
Fabiola Saavedra-Caballero, Alfredo Villca
{"title":"研究玻利维亚是否存在双赤字问题","authors":"Fabiola Saavedra-Caballero, Alfredo Villca","doi":"10.1108/ijoem-01-2023-0043","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"<h3>Purpose</h3>\n<p>We examine the twin deficits and the direction of its movement for the case of Bolivia, a natural resource-dependent country, using the database of (Kehoe <em>et al</em>., 2019) from 1960 to 2019.</p><!--/ Abstract__block -->\n<h3>Design/methodology/approach</h3>\n<p>We combine a structural vector autoregression (SVAR) model with a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model to understand the transmission mechanisms.</p><!--/ Abstract__block -->\n<h3>Findings</h3>\n<p>Our results suggest the existence of twin deficits in Bolivia; however, causality in the Mundell-Fleming sense does not hold. While fiscal policy shocks explain current account deficits, current account shocks have a stronger effect over fiscal deficit. In fact, only 23% of the variance of current account forecast errors is explained by fiscal policy shocks; in contrast, 45% of the variance of the fiscal deficit is explained by current account shocks.</p><!--/ Abstract__block -->\n<h3>Research limitations/implications</h3>\n<p>The study is for a specific case, which is a limitation; however, other country samples can be included.</p><!--/ Abstract__block -->\n<h3>Practical implications</h3>\n<p>Based on the results of the work, policies can be recommended and designed to cushion the effects of external shocks.</p><!--/ Abstract__block -->\n<h3>Originality/value</h3>\n<p>According to the literature available for the Bolivian case, our work constitutes a significant contribution and, therefore, is original for this specific case.</p><!--/ Abstract__block -->","PeriodicalId":47381,"journal":{"name":"International Journal of Emerging Markets","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":2.7000,"publicationDate":"2024-07-29","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":"0","resultStr":"{\"title\":\"Examining the existence of twin deficits in Bolivia\",\"authors\":\"Fabiola Saavedra-Caballero, Alfredo Villca\",\"doi\":\"10.1108/ijoem-01-2023-0043\",\"DOIUrl\":null,\"url\":null,\"abstract\":\"<h3>Purpose</h3>\\n<p>We examine the twin deficits and the direction of its movement for the case of Bolivia, a natural resource-dependent country, using the database of (Kehoe <em>et al</em>., 2019) from 1960 to 2019.</p><!--/ Abstract__block -->\\n<h3>Design/methodology/approach</h3>\\n<p>We combine a structural vector autoregression (SVAR) model with a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model to understand the transmission mechanisms.</p><!--/ Abstract__block -->\\n<h3>Findings</h3>\\n<p>Our results suggest the existence of twin deficits in Bolivia; however, causality in the Mundell-Fleming sense does not hold. While fiscal policy shocks explain current account deficits, current account shocks have a stronger effect over fiscal deficit. In fact, only 23% of the variance of current account forecast errors is explained by fiscal policy shocks; in contrast, 45% of the variance of the fiscal deficit is explained by current account shocks.</p><!--/ Abstract__block -->\\n<h3>Research limitations/implications</h3>\\n<p>The study is for a specific case, which is a limitation; however, other country samples can be included.</p><!--/ Abstract__block -->\\n<h3>Practical implications</h3>\\n<p>Based on the results of the work, policies can be recommended and designed to cushion the effects of external shocks.</p><!--/ Abstract__block -->\\n<h3>Originality/value</h3>\\n<p>According to the literature available for the Bolivian case, our work constitutes a significant contribution and, therefore, is original for this specific case.</p><!--/ Abstract__block -->\",\"PeriodicalId\":47381,\"journal\":{\"name\":\"International Journal of Emerging Markets\",\"volume\":null,\"pages\":null},\"PeriodicalIF\":2.7000,\"publicationDate\":\"2024-07-29\",\"publicationTypes\":\"Journal Article\",\"fieldsOfStudy\":null,\"isOpenAccess\":false,\"openAccessPdf\":\"\",\"citationCount\":\"0\",\"resultStr\":null,\"platform\":\"Semanticscholar\",\"paperid\":null,\"PeriodicalName\":\"International Journal of Emerging Markets\",\"FirstCategoryId\":\"91\",\"ListUrlMain\":\"https://doi.org/10.1108/ijoem-01-2023-0043\",\"RegionNum\":4,\"RegionCategory\":\"管理学\",\"ArticlePicture\":[],\"TitleCN\":null,\"AbstractTextCN\":null,\"PMCID\":null,\"EPubDate\":\"\",\"PubModel\":\"\",\"JCR\":\"Q2\",\"JCRName\":\"BUSINESS\",\"Score\":null,\"Total\":0}","platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"International Journal of Emerging Markets","FirstCategoryId":"91","ListUrlMain":"https://doi.org/10.1108/ijoem-01-2023-0043","RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"管理学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"Q2","JCRName":"BUSINESS","Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0

摘要

目的我们利用(Kehoe et al.,2019)的数据库研究了玻利维亚(一个自然资源依赖型国家)从 1960 年到 2019 年的双赤字及其变动方向。虽然财政政策冲击可以解释经常账户赤字,但经常账户冲击对财政赤字的影响更大。事实上,财政政策冲击只解释了 23% 的经常账户预测误差方差;相比之下,经常账户冲击解释了 45% 的财政赤字方差。原创性/价值根据有关玻利维亚案例的现有文献,我们的工作是一项重大贡献,因此,对于这一特定案例而言,我们的工作具有原创性。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
Examining the existence of twin deficits in Bolivia

Purpose

We examine the twin deficits and the direction of its movement for the case of Bolivia, a natural resource-dependent country, using the database of (Kehoe et al., 2019) from 1960 to 2019.

Design/methodology/approach

We combine a structural vector autoregression (SVAR) model with a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model to understand the transmission mechanisms.

Findings

Our results suggest the existence of twin deficits in Bolivia; however, causality in the Mundell-Fleming sense does not hold. While fiscal policy shocks explain current account deficits, current account shocks have a stronger effect over fiscal deficit. In fact, only 23% of the variance of current account forecast errors is explained by fiscal policy shocks; in contrast, 45% of the variance of the fiscal deficit is explained by current account shocks.

Research limitations/implications

The study is for a specific case, which is a limitation; however, other country samples can be included.

Practical implications

Based on the results of the work, policies can be recommended and designed to cushion the effects of external shocks.

Originality/value

According to the literature available for the Bolivian case, our work constitutes a significant contribution and, therefore, is original for this specific case.

求助全文
通过发布文献求助,成功后即可免费获取论文全文。 去求助
来源期刊
CiteScore
5.90
自引率
14.80%
发文量
206
×
引用
GB/T 7714-2015
复制
MLA
复制
APA
复制
导出至
BibTeX EndNote RefMan NoteFirst NoteExpress
×
提示
您的信息不完整,为了账户安全,请先补充。
现在去补充
×
提示
您因"违规操作"
具体请查看互助需知
我知道了
×
提示
确定
请完成安全验证×
copy
已复制链接
快去分享给好友吧!
我知道了
右上角分享
点击右上角分享
0
联系我们:info@booksci.cn Book学术提供免费学术资源搜索服务,方便国内外学者检索中英文文献。致力于提供最便捷和优质的服务体验。 Copyright © 2023 布克学术 All rights reserved.
京ICP备2023020795号-1
ghs 京公网安备 11010802042870号
Book学术文献互助
Book学术文献互助群
群 号:481959085
Book学术官方微信