研究玻利维亚是否存在双赤字问题

IF 2.7 4区 管理学 Q2 BUSINESS
Fabiola Saavedra-Caballero, Alfredo Villca
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引用次数: 0

摘要

目的我们利用(Kehoe et al.,2019)的数据库研究了玻利维亚(一个自然资源依赖型国家)从 1960 年到 2019 年的双赤字及其变动方向。虽然财政政策冲击可以解释经常账户赤字,但经常账户冲击对财政赤字的影响更大。事实上,财政政策冲击只解释了 23% 的经常账户预测误差方差;相比之下,经常账户冲击解释了 45% 的财政赤字方差。原创性/价值根据有关玻利维亚案例的现有文献,我们的工作是一项重大贡献,因此,对于这一特定案例而言,我们的工作具有原创性。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
Examining the existence of twin deficits in Bolivia

Purpose

We examine the twin deficits and the direction of its movement for the case of Bolivia, a natural resource-dependent country, using the database of (Kehoe et al., 2019) from 1960 to 2019.

Design/methodology/approach

We combine a structural vector autoregression (SVAR) model with a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model to understand the transmission mechanisms.

Findings

Our results suggest the existence of twin deficits in Bolivia; however, causality in the Mundell-Fleming sense does not hold. While fiscal policy shocks explain current account deficits, current account shocks have a stronger effect over fiscal deficit. In fact, only 23% of the variance of current account forecast errors is explained by fiscal policy shocks; in contrast, 45% of the variance of the fiscal deficit is explained by current account shocks.

Research limitations/implications

The study is for a specific case, which is a limitation; however, other country samples can be included.

Practical implications

Based on the results of the work, policies can be recommended and designed to cushion the effects of external shocks.

Originality/value

According to the literature available for the Bolivian case, our work constitutes a significant contribution and, therefore, is original for this specific case.

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来源期刊
CiteScore
5.90
自引率
14.80%
发文量
206
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