{"title":"研究玻利维亚是否存在双赤字问题","authors":"Fabiola Saavedra-Caballero, Alfredo Villca","doi":"10.1108/ijoem-01-2023-0043","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"<h3>Purpose</h3>\n<p>We examine the twin deficits and the direction of its movement for the case of Bolivia, a natural resource-dependent country, using the database of (Kehoe <em>et al</em>., 2019) from 1960 to 2019.</p><!--/ Abstract__block -->\n<h3>Design/methodology/approach</h3>\n<p>We combine a structural vector autoregression (SVAR) model with a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model to understand the transmission mechanisms.</p><!--/ Abstract__block -->\n<h3>Findings</h3>\n<p>Our results suggest the existence of twin deficits in Bolivia; however, causality in the Mundell-Fleming sense does not hold. While fiscal policy shocks explain current account deficits, current account shocks have a stronger effect over fiscal deficit. In fact, only 23% of the variance of current account forecast errors is explained by fiscal policy shocks; in contrast, 45% of the variance of the fiscal deficit is explained by current account shocks.</p><!--/ Abstract__block -->\n<h3>Research limitations/implications</h3>\n<p>The study is for a specific case, which is a limitation; however, other country samples can be included.</p><!--/ Abstract__block -->\n<h3>Practical implications</h3>\n<p>Based on the results of the work, policies can be recommended and designed to cushion the effects of external shocks.</p><!--/ Abstract__block -->\n<h3>Originality/value</h3>\n<p>According to the literature available for the Bolivian case, our work constitutes a significant contribution and, therefore, is original for this specific case.</p><!--/ Abstract__block -->","PeriodicalId":47381,"journal":{"name":"International Journal of Emerging Markets","volume":"17 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.7000,"publicationDate":"2024-07-29","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":"0","resultStr":"{\"title\":\"Examining the existence of twin deficits in Bolivia\",\"authors\":\"Fabiola Saavedra-Caballero, Alfredo Villca\",\"doi\":\"10.1108/ijoem-01-2023-0043\",\"DOIUrl\":null,\"url\":null,\"abstract\":\"<h3>Purpose</h3>\\n<p>We examine the twin deficits and the direction of its movement for the case of Bolivia, a natural resource-dependent country, using the database of (Kehoe <em>et al</em>., 2019) from 1960 to 2019.</p><!--/ Abstract__block -->\\n<h3>Design/methodology/approach</h3>\\n<p>We combine a structural vector autoregression (SVAR) model with a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model to understand the transmission mechanisms.</p><!--/ Abstract__block -->\\n<h3>Findings</h3>\\n<p>Our results suggest the existence of twin deficits in Bolivia; however, causality in the Mundell-Fleming sense does not hold. While fiscal policy shocks explain current account deficits, current account shocks have a stronger effect over fiscal deficit. In fact, only 23% of the variance of current account forecast errors is explained by fiscal policy shocks; in contrast, 45% of the variance of the fiscal deficit is explained by current account shocks.</p><!--/ Abstract__block -->\\n<h3>Research limitations/implications</h3>\\n<p>The study is for a specific case, which is a limitation; however, other country samples can be included.</p><!--/ Abstract__block -->\\n<h3>Practical implications</h3>\\n<p>Based on the results of the work, policies can be recommended and designed to cushion the effects of external shocks.</p><!--/ Abstract__block -->\\n<h3>Originality/value</h3>\\n<p>According to the literature available for the Bolivian case, our work constitutes a significant contribution and, therefore, is original for this specific case.</p><!--/ Abstract__block -->\",\"PeriodicalId\":47381,\"journal\":{\"name\":\"International Journal of Emerging Markets\",\"volume\":\"17 1\",\"pages\":\"\"},\"PeriodicalIF\":2.7000,\"publicationDate\":\"2024-07-29\",\"publicationTypes\":\"Journal Article\",\"fieldsOfStudy\":null,\"isOpenAccess\":false,\"openAccessPdf\":\"\",\"citationCount\":\"0\",\"resultStr\":null,\"platform\":\"Semanticscholar\",\"paperid\":null,\"PeriodicalName\":\"International Journal of Emerging Markets\",\"FirstCategoryId\":\"91\",\"ListUrlMain\":\"https://doi.org/10.1108/ijoem-01-2023-0043\",\"RegionNum\":4,\"RegionCategory\":\"管理学\",\"ArticlePicture\":[],\"TitleCN\":null,\"AbstractTextCN\":null,\"PMCID\":null,\"EPubDate\":\"\",\"PubModel\":\"\",\"JCR\":\"Q2\",\"JCRName\":\"BUSINESS\",\"Score\":null,\"Total\":0}","platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"International Journal of Emerging Markets","FirstCategoryId":"91","ListUrlMain":"https://doi.org/10.1108/ijoem-01-2023-0043","RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"管理学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"Q2","JCRName":"BUSINESS","Score":null,"Total":0}
Examining the existence of twin deficits in Bolivia
Purpose
We examine the twin deficits and the direction of its movement for the case of Bolivia, a natural resource-dependent country, using the database of (Kehoe et al., 2019) from 1960 to 2019.
Design/methodology/approach
We combine a structural vector autoregression (SVAR) model with a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model to understand the transmission mechanisms.
Findings
Our results suggest the existence of twin deficits in Bolivia; however, causality in the Mundell-Fleming sense does not hold. While fiscal policy shocks explain current account deficits, current account shocks have a stronger effect over fiscal deficit. In fact, only 23% of the variance of current account forecast errors is explained by fiscal policy shocks; in contrast, 45% of the variance of the fiscal deficit is explained by current account shocks.
Research limitations/implications
The study is for a specific case, which is a limitation; however, other country samples can be included.
Practical implications
Based on the results of the work, policies can be recommended and designed to cushion the effects of external shocks.
Originality/value
According to the literature available for the Bolivian case, our work constitutes a significant contribution and, therefore, is original for this specific case.