Forecast Modeling of Invasive and Climate-driven Scenarios of Pest Outbreaks

Abstract

The climate change observed in the zone of boreal forests of the Holarctic since the end of the 20th century initiates the effect of expanding the boundaries of biological species ranges. Climate-driven invasive processes differ in dynamics. In some situations, there are population outbreaks of unwanted species. In addition to the climatic factor, an important aspect is the response of a biotic environment. Special methods are required to predict rapid invasions that can cause extreme changes. The reproductive potential of pests often turns out to be excessive due to warming climate and favorable conditions. Aggressive invasions often develop as oscillating processes that transform when the species adapts to the environment and fades when the autochthonous biota adapts to a new species. Not only new pests, but also the enemies of the main enemies of ordinary pests have become harmful invaders. Computational scenario models of invasions have been developed based on a logically expandable hybrid structure of equations that take into account delayed adaptation, which is manifested depending on climatic factors as an invasion outbreak develops. The scenarios indicate the series of peaks with fading activity after a primary outbreak and make it possible to evaluate the factors that cause repeated activity of a population after a depression when the invasion of a hyperparasite turns out to be essential.