为什么你不需要担心 "你是一个波尔兹曼大脑 "的标准论点?

Carlo Rovelli, David Wolpert
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引用次数: 0

摘要

你的感知、记忆和观测数据是否是波兹曼脑,即宇宙热平衡中短暂的统计波动?文献中提出了一些论点,声称需要认真考虑这一离奇的假说,我们关于过去的所有数据实际上都是海市蜃楼。我们指出了这些论证中的一个难点:它们基于动力学定律和统计论证,但它们忽视了一个事实,即我们推断动力学定律的前提是我们关于过去的数据记录是可靠的。因此,支持玻尔兹曼大脑假说的推理是自相矛盾的,它依赖于我们关于过去的数据的可靠性,却得出了数据是错误的结论。更广泛地说,它是建立在不完整的证据之上的。不完整的证据往往会导致错误的结论。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
Why you do not need to worry about the standard argument that you are a Boltzmann brain
Are you, with your perceptions, memories and observational data, a Boltzmann brain, namely a fleeting statistical fluctuation out of the thermal equilibrium of the universe? Arguments are given in the literature claiming that this bizarre hypothesis needs to be considered seriously, that all of our data about the past is actually a mirage. We point to a difficulty in these arguments. They are based on the dynamical laws and on statistical arguments, but they disregard the fact that we infer the dynamical laws presupposing the reliability of our data records about the past. Hence the reasoning in favor of the Boltzmann brain hypothesis contradicts itself, relying on the reliability of our data about the past to conclude that that data is wrong. More broadly, it is based on incomplete evidence. Incomplete evidence notoriously leads to false conclusions.
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