{"title":"碳减排目标下的化石燃料需求情景预测","authors":"Yanrong Huang, Xinliang Wang","doi":"10.1007/s10553-024-01722-w","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"<p>Restructuring energy supply and demand is one of the essential measures to realize the carbon emissions reduction target. To explore the impact of the restructuring of energy supply and demand on fossil fuel demand under the carbon emissions reduction target, takes China as an example, obtains a data set, and utilizes the elasticity analysis, incremental contribution method, weighted moving average method and scenario analysis to forecast the structure of energy demand and the consumption of fossil fuels. The study results show that the projected values of China’s total energy consumption demand in 2030 and 2035 will be 6300.19-6419.82 million tons of standard coal and 6955.92-7175.29 million tons of traditional coal, respectively. The shares of coal, oil, and natural gas in total energy consumption in 2030 will be 45.68-46.35%, 17.95-18.27%, and 10.71-10.89% respectively; by 2035 the energy structure will be further optimized, and the shares of coal, oil, and natural gas in the total energy consumption will be 39.71-40.53%, 18.07-18.56% and 11.86-12.15%, respectively. Further forecasts of gasoline, kerosene, diesel, and fuel oil consumption in 2030 and 2035 are analyzed in this study.</p>","PeriodicalId":9908,"journal":{"name":"Chemistry and Technology of Fuels and Oils","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.6000,"publicationDate":"2024-07-22","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":"0","resultStr":"{\"title\":\"Fossil Fuel Demand Scenarios Forecast Under the Carbon Emissions Reduction Target\",\"authors\":\"Yanrong Huang, Xinliang Wang\",\"doi\":\"10.1007/s10553-024-01722-w\",\"DOIUrl\":null,\"url\":null,\"abstract\":\"<p>Restructuring energy supply and demand is one of the essential measures to realize the carbon emissions reduction target. To explore the impact of the restructuring of energy supply and demand on fossil fuel demand under the carbon emissions reduction target, takes China as an example, obtains a data set, and utilizes the elasticity analysis, incremental contribution method, weighted moving average method and scenario analysis to forecast the structure of energy demand and the consumption of fossil fuels. The study results show that the projected values of China’s total energy consumption demand in 2030 and 2035 will be 6300.19-6419.82 million tons of standard coal and 6955.92-7175.29 million tons of traditional coal, respectively. The shares of coal, oil, and natural gas in total energy consumption in 2030 will be 45.68-46.35%, 17.95-18.27%, and 10.71-10.89% respectively; by 2035 the energy structure will be further optimized, and the shares of coal, oil, and natural gas in the total energy consumption will be 39.71-40.53%, 18.07-18.56% and 11.86-12.15%, respectively. Further forecasts of gasoline, kerosene, diesel, and fuel oil consumption in 2030 and 2035 are analyzed in this study.</p>\",\"PeriodicalId\":9908,\"journal\":{\"name\":\"Chemistry and Technology of Fuels and Oils\",\"volume\":null,\"pages\":null},\"PeriodicalIF\":0.6000,\"publicationDate\":\"2024-07-22\",\"publicationTypes\":\"Journal Article\",\"fieldsOfStudy\":null,\"isOpenAccess\":false,\"openAccessPdf\":\"\",\"citationCount\":\"0\",\"resultStr\":null,\"platform\":\"Semanticscholar\",\"paperid\":null,\"PeriodicalName\":\"Chemistry and Technology of Fuels and Oils\",\"FirstCategoryId\":\"5\",\"ListUrlMain\":\"https://doi.org/10.1007/s10553-024-01722-w\",\"RegionNum\":4,\"RegionCategory\":\"工程技术\",\"ArticlePicture\":[],\"TitleCN\":null,\"AbstractTextCN\":null,\"PMCID\":null,\"EPubDate\":\"\",\"PubModel\":\"\",\"JCR\":\"Q4\",\"JCRName\":\"ENERGY & FUELS\",\"Score\":null,\"Total\":0}","platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"Chemistry and Technology of Fuels and Oils","FirstCategoryId":"5","ListUrlMain":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s10553-024-01722-w","RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"Q4","JCRName":"ENERGY & FUELS","Score":null,"Total":0}
Fossil Fuel Demand Scenarios Forecast Under the Carbon Emissions Reduction Target
Restructuring energy supply and demand is one of the essential measures to realize the carbon emissions reduction target. To explore the impact of the restructuring of energy supply and demand on fossil fuel demand under the carbon emissions reduction target, takes China as an example, obtains a data set, and utilizes the elasticity analysis, incremental contribution method, weighted moving average method and scenario analysis to forecast the structure of energy demand and the consumption of fossil fuels. The study results show that the projected values of China’s total energy consumption demand in 2030 and 2035 will be 6300.19-6419.82 million tons of standard coal and 6955.92-7175.29 million tons of traditional coal, respectively. The shares of coal, oil, and natural gas in total energy consumption in 2030 will be 45.68-46.35%, 17.95-18.27%, and 10.71-10.89% respectively; by 2035 the energy structure will be further optimized, and the shares of coal, oil, and natural gas in the total energy consumption will be 39.71-40.53%, 18.07-18.56% and 11.86-12.15%, respectively. Further forecasts of gasoline, kerosene, diesel, and fuel oil consumption in 2030 and 2035 are analyzed in this study.
期刊介绍:
Chemistry and Technology of Fuels and Oils publishes reports on improvements in the processing of petroleum and natural gas and cracking and refining techniques for the production of high-quality fuels, oils, greases, specialty fluids, additives and synthetics. The journal includes timely articles on the demulsification, desalting, and desulfurizing of crude oil; new flow plans for refineries; platforming, isomerization, catalytic reforming, and alkylation processes for obtaining aromatic hydrocarbons and high-octane gasoline; methods of producing ethylene, acetylene, benzene, acids, alcohols, esters, and other compounds from petroleum, as well as hydrogen from natural gas and liquid products.