碳减排目标下的化石燃料需求情景预测

IF 0.6 4区 工程技术 Q4 ENERGY & FUELS
Yanrong Huang, Xinliang Wang
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引用次数: 0

摘要

调整能源供需结构是实现碳减排目标的必要措施之一。为探讨碳减排目标下能源供需结构调整对化石燃料需求的影响,以中国为例,获取数据集,利用弹性分析法、增量贡献法、加权移动平均法和情景分析法对能源需求结构和化石燃料消费进行预测。研究结果表明,2030 年和 2035 年中国能源消费需求总量预测值分别为 630019-641982 万吨标准煤和 695592-717529 万吨传统煤。2030 年煤炭、石油、天然气占能源消费总量的比重分别为 45.68%-46.35%、17.95%-18.27%、10.71%-10.89%;到 2035 年能源结构进一步优化,煤炭、石油、天然气占能源消费总量的比重分别为 39.71%-40.53%、18.07%-18.56%、11.86%-12.15%。本研究对 2030 年和 2035 年的汽油、煤油、柴油和燃料油消费量进行了进一步预测分析。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。

Fossil Fuel Demand Scenarios Forecast Under the Carbon Emissions Reduction Target

Fossil Fuel Demand Scenarios Forecast Under the Carbon Emissions Reduction Target

Restructuring energy supply and demand is one of the essential measures to realize the carbon emissions reduction target. To explore the impact of the restructuring of energy supply and demand on fossil fuel demand under the carbon emissions reduction target, takes China as an example, obtains a data set, and utilizes the elasticity analysis, incremental contribution method, weighted moving average method and scenario analysis to forecast the structure of energy demand and the consumption of fossil fuels. The study results show that the projected values of China’s total energy consumption demand in 2030 and 2035 will be 6300.19-6419.82 million tons of standard coal and 6955.92-7175.29 million tons of traditional coal, respectively. The shares of coal, oil, and natural gas in total energy consumption in 2030 will be 45.68-46.35%, 17.95-18.27%, and 10.71-10.89% respectively; by 2035 the energy structure will be further optimized, and the shares of coal, oil, and natural gas in the total energy consumption will be 39.71-40.53%, 18.07-18.56% and 11.86-12.15%, respectively. Further forecasts of gasoline, kerosene, diesel, and fuel oil consumption in 2030 and 2035 are analyzed in this study.

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来源期刊
Chemistry and Technology of Fuels and Oils
Chemistry and Technology of Fuels and Oils 工程技术-工程:化工
CiteScore
0.90
自引率
16.70%
发文量
119
审稿时长
1.0 months
期刊介绍: Chemistry and Technology of Fuels and Oils publishes reports on improvements in the processing of petroleum and natural gas and cracking and refining techniques for the production of high-quality fuels, oils, greases, specialty fluids, additives and synthetics. The journal includes timely articles on the demulsification, desalting, and desulfurizing of crude oil; new flow plans for refineries; platforming, isomerization, catalytic reforming, and alkylation processes for obtaining aromatic hydrocarbons and high-octane gasoline; methods of producing ethylene, acetylene, benzene, acids, alcohols, esters, and other compounds from petroleum, as well as hydrogen from natural gas and liquid products.
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