从根除到保护：在不断变化的气候中确定上新世遗迹的恢复和管理区域

IF 2.8 3区环境科学与生态学 Q2 ECOLOGY

Restoration Ecology Pub Date : 2024-07-17 DOI:10.1111/rec.14232

Katie J. Pennartz, Evan P. Tanner, J. Matthew Carroll, R. Dwayne Elmore, Craig A. Davis, Samuel D. Fuhlendorf

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引用次数: 0

摘要

截至 1985 年，美国西南部约有 400,000 公顷的关键物种信尼栎（Quercus havardii）历史分布区因农业目的而消失。这些趋势表明，有必要开展有针对性的保护和恢复工作，特别是考虑到其在为濒危动物提供栖息地方面的作用已受到越来越多的关注。对于分布范围有限的物种来说，制定明确的空间保护目标具有挑战性，因为随着时间的推移，气候条件的变化可能会切断环境适宜性与静态地形-地貌因素之间的关系。我们的目标是确定新里栎的恢复和保护区域，并在考虑地形-地貌关系的同时，探索气候在确定这些区域中所起的作用。我们构建了生态位模型，以估计希纳里栎在当前气候条件下的分布情况，并利用总环流模型的集合平均值对模型进行时间转移，以确定预计到 2100 年希纳里栎仍能保持环境适宜性的区域。一个气候变量和两个地形-地貌变量为当前的分布模型提供了最佳信息。我们创建了第二个不包括地形-土壤变量的分布模型，以估计未来植物与气候的关系。结合从静态（如土壤）和动态（如气候）变量模型中得到的启示，我们确定了以持续气候适宜性和高土壤类型适宜性为特征的保护区域。最后，我们纳入了土地使用和所有权数据，以探索社会生态对管理决策的影响。通过确定模型分布之间的一致区域并考虑社会背景，我们确定了在不断变化的条件下环境适宜性持续存在的优先保护区域，以促进恢复的成功。

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From eradication to conservation: identifying areas for restoration and management of a Pliocene relic in a changing climate

By 1985, approximately 400,000 ha of the keystone species Shinnery oak's (Quercus havardii) historic distribution had been eliminated for agricultural purposes across the southwestern United States. These trends indicate a need for targeted conservation and restoration efforts, especially considering the increased attention received for its role in providing habitat for endangered fauna. Setting spatially explicit conservation targets can be challenging for species with limited distributions, as the change in climate conditions over time may disconnect the relationship between environmental suitability and static, topo‐edaphic factors. Our objective was to identify areas for Shinnery oak restoration and conservation and explore the role climate plays in determining these areas while considering topo‐edaphic relationships. We constructed ecological niche models to estimate Shinnery oak's distribution under current climate conditions and temporally transferred our model using an ensemble‐mean of general circulation models to identify areas predicted to retain environmental suitability for Shinnery oak through 2100. The current distribution model was best informed by one climate and two topo‐edaphic variables. We created a second distribution model excluding topo‐edaphic variables to estimate future plant–climate relationships. Incorporating insights from models informed by both static (e.g. soil) and dynamic (e.g. climate) variables, we identified areas for conservation characterized by persistent climate suitability and high soil type suitability. Lastly, we incorporated data on land use and ownership to explore socio‐ecological influences on management decisions. By identifying areas of agreement between our modeled distributions and considering social context, we prioritized conservation areas where environmental suitability persists under changing conditions to facilitate restoration success.

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来源期刊

Restoration Ecology 环境科学-生态学

CiteScore

6.50

自引率

15.60%

发文量

226

审稿时长

12-24 weeks

期刊介绍： Restoration Ecology fosters the exchange of ideas among the many disciplines involved with ecological restoration. Addressing global concerns and communicating them to the international research community and restoration practitioners, the journal is at the forefront of a vital new direction in science, ecology, and policy. Original papers describe experimental, observational, and theoretical studies on terrestrial, marine, and freshwater systems, and are considered without taxonomic bias. Contributions span the natural sciences, including ecological and biological aspects, as well as the restoration of soil, air and water when set in an ecological context; and the social sciences, including cultural, philosophical, political, educational, economic and historical aspects. Edited by a distinguished panel, the journal continues to be a major conduit for researchers to publish their findings in the fight to not only halt ecological damage, but also to ultimately reverse it.