Leveraging pharmacokinetic parameters as covariate in Bayesian logistic regression model to optimize dose selection in early phase oncology trial.

Dose selection and optimization in early phase of oncology drug development serves as the foundation for the success of late phases drug development. Bivariate Bayesian logistic regression model (BLRM) is a widely utilized model-based algorithm that has been shown to improve the accuracy for identifying recommended phase 2 dose (RP2D) based on dose-limiting-toxicity (DLT) over traditional method such as 3 + 3. However, it remains a challenge to optimize dose selection that strikes a proper balance between safety and efficacy in escalation and expansion phase of phase I trials. In this paper, we first use a phase I clinical trial to demonstrate how the variability of drug exposure related to pharmacokinetic (PK) parameters among trial participants may add to the difficulties of identifying optimal dose. We use simulation to show that concurrently or retrospectively fitting BLRM model for dose/toxicity data from escalation phase with dose-independent PK parameters as covariate lead to improved accuracy of identifying dose level at which DLT rate is within a prespecified toxicity interval. Furthermore, we proposed both model- and rule-based methods to modify dose at patient level in expansion cohorts based on their PK/exposure parameters. Simulation studies show this approach leads to higher likelihood for a dose level with a manageable toxicity and desirable efficacy margin to be advanced to late phase pipeline after being screened at expansion phase of phase I trial.