Quantifying uncertainty in trans-membrane stresses and moments in simulation.

The lateral stress profile of a lipid bilayer constitutes a valuable link between molecular simulation and mesoscopic elastic theory. Even though it is frequently calculated in simulations, its statistical precision (or that of observables derived from it) is often left unspecified. This omission can be problematic, as uncertainties are prerequisite to assessing statistical significance. In this chapter, we provide a comprehensive yet accessible overview of the statistical error analysis for the lateral stress profile. We detail two relatively simple but powerful techniques for generating error bars: block-averaging and bootstrapping. Combining these methods allows us to reliably estimate uncertainties, even in the presence of both temporal and spatial correlations, which are ubiquitous in simulation data. We illustrate these techniques with simple examples like stress moments, but also more complex observables such as the location of stress profile extrema and the monolayer neutral surface.