Extreme weather has variable effects on reproductive success of grassland songbirds at the northern extent of their range

Grassland songbirds breeding in Canada and the United States have experienced significant population declines likely because of habitat loss and degradation. Many climate change models predict an increase in the frequency, intensity, and duration of extreme precipitation and temperature events that could place further pressures on declining species. We monitored the fate of 1,868 individual nesting attempts of 7 grassland songbird species in response to various precipitation and temperature measures over a 10-yr period (1997–2002 and 2004–2008) in Saskatchewan, Canada. Daily nest survival rates of 5 species, including 3 at-risk species, were negatively influenced by high levels of precipitation, although the amount of precipitation where declines in daily nest survival occurred varied. Daily nest survival rates of 2 species were negatively correlated with high temperatures. We failed to detect any relationship between precipitation or temperature and the number of fledglings produced from successful nests. Extreme weather events could add additional stressors to declining populations of grassland birds in Canada. Increases in the frequency and intensity of extreme weather, specifically extreme precipitation events and short-term high temperatures, will likely lead to lower reproductive success for several species compared to current levels. This may be especially problematic for management of Anthus spragueii (Sprague’s Pipit) and Centronyx bairdii (Baird’s Sparrow), where a large proportion (>75%) of the breeding population occurs near the northern edge of the Great Plains. The continuing loss and degradation of northern grasslands may limit the ability of these species to disperse and find favorable climate conditions.