开展和传播野外火灾概率预测的框架

Fire Pub Date : 2024-07-01 DOI:10.3390/fire7070227
Janice L. Coen, Gary W. Johnson, J. S. Romsos, David Saah
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引用次数: 0

摘要

火灾模型可预测火灾行为和影响。然而,我们需要知道用户对预测的信心有多大。这项工作开发了一种基于集合模拟的概率方法,其中包含天气、燃料负荷和模型物理参数的不确定性。它提供了最有可能的预测方案、置信水平和潜在异常值等信息。它还引入了在计算和图形表示中交流不确定性的新方法,并利用 CAWFE 气象-火灾耦合模型(12 至 26 个成员)的集合模拟将其应用于各种野火。集合模拟捕捉到了许多特征,但传播范围比预期的要窄,特别是在天气和燃料输入不同的情况下,这表明误差可能不容易通过改进输入数据而得到缓解。不同的物理参数造成了更大的误差,包括确定了一个离群值,突出了建模知识的差距。使用燃烧概率、蔓延率和热通量(一种与燃烧严重程度相关的火灾强度指标)对不确定性进行了交流。尽管集合传播范围有限,但平均值和标准偏差图揭示了火灾行为更不确定的事件时间和地点,需要更多的管理或观察。通过将传统的冷热调色板替换为适合视力障碍人士并符合网络无障碍标准的调色板,提高了可读性。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
A Framework for Conducting and Communicating Probabilistic Wildland Fire Forecasts
Fire models predict fire behavior and effects. However, there is a need to know how confident users can be in forecasts. This work developed a probabilistic methodology based on ensemble simulations that incorporated uncertainty in weather, fuel loading, and model physics parameters. It provided information on the most likely forecast scenario, confidence levels, and potential outliers. It also introduced novel ways to communicate uncertainty in calculation and graphical representation and applied this to diverse wildfires using ensemble simulations of the CAWFE coupled weather–fire model ranging from 12 to 26 members. The ensembles captured many features but spread was narrower than expected, especially with varying weather and fuel inputs, suggesting errors may not be easily mitigated by improving input data. Varying physics parameters created a wider spread, including identifying an outlier, underscoring modeling knowledge gaps. Uncertainty was communicated using burn probability, spread rate, and heat flux, a fire intensity metric related to burn severity. Despite limited ensemble spread, maps of mean and standard deviation exposed event times and locations where fire behavior was more uncertain, requiring more management or observations. Interpretability was enhanced by replacing traditional hot–cold color palettes with ones that accommodate the vision-impaired and adhere to web accessibility standards.
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