Covid-19 大流行期间印尼盾对美元汇率的超调

Bima Setyo Aji Kristianto, Ujang Suherman, Rengga Madya
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引用次数: 0

摘要

本研究旨在分析 COVID-19 大流行期间印尼盾对美元的超调汇率。使用的数据是 2019 年 1 月至 2022 年 12 月的月度数据。使用的分析方法包括单位根检验、滞后检验、稳定性检验、协整检验、格兰杰因果检验、矢量误差修正模型(VECM)估计、脉冲响应函数(IRF)和方差分解。研究结果表明,从长期来看,利率和 JUB 对 RP/USD 有显著影响,而从短期来看,JUB 对 RP/USD 的汇价有显著影响。VECM 估计结果显示存在显著的协整关系,变量对冲击的反应显示存在超调症状。这些变量对印尼盾/美元汇率变化的贡献也通过方差分解检验得以确定。总之,印尼在科威德-19 大流行病期间出现了超调现象,这是 JUB 短期冲击的特征。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
Overshoot Nilai Tukar Rupiah Terhadap Us Dollar pada Masa Pandemi Covid-19
This study aims to analyze overshooting exchange rates Rupiah towards US Dollar during the COVID-19 pandemic period. The data used is monthly data from January 2019 to December 2022. Several variabels employed are exchange rate ,interest rate, inflation, Gross Domestic Product and money supply The analysis methods used include unit root test, lag test, stability test, cointegration test, Granger causality test, Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) estimation, Impulse Response Function (IRF), and Variance Decomposition. The results of the research showed that interest rate and JUB affects significant RP/USD in the long term, whereas in the short term JUB had significant, affects on the exchange value of RP/USD. The VECM estimation results show a significant cointegration relationship, and the response of the variables to the shock reveals the presence of overshooting symptoms. The contribution of these variables to the variability of the Rupiah/USD exchange rate is also identified through the Variance Decomposition test. In conclusion, overshooting in Indonesia during pandemic Covid-19 is occur, by characterizing JUB shock in short term.
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