为斯里兰卡部分高产蔬菜引入 "收获后损失指数(PHLI)"以加强粮食安全

C. Jayasinghe, D. Dassanayake, R. Madhushani, J. C. Edirisinghe, H. M. S. Wasana, M. A. Wijewardane
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引用次数: 0

摘要

制定收获后损失指数(PHLI)对于填补数据空白,了解国内因收获后损失而造成的实际经济损失(数量 x 价格)以及采取措施加强粮食安全非常重要。估算农产品的 PHLI 是一个新概念。因此,在本研究中,斯里兰卡水果和蔬菜价值链的中心丹布拉经济中心(DEC)按月制定了豆类、胡萝卜、韭菜和甜菜的 PHLI。收集了 2015 年 10 月至 2017 年 3 月期间 DEC 的每日收获后损失和价格数据。此外,还采用了时间序列分析下的 SARIMA 方法来预测每种蔬菜未来的 PHLI 值。结果显示,在市场蔬菜供应量呈下降趋势的月份,PHLI 值相对较低,而在供应量较高的月份,PHLI 值呈上升趋势。未来三个月豆类的预测 PHLI 值分别为 74.73、61.31 和 61.71,胡萝卜的预测值分别为 112.03、81.28 和 47.67。此外,韭菜的预测值分别为 271.33、194.19 和 174.97,而甜菜未来三个月的 PHLI 值分别为 177.78、208.15 和 231.90。由于所选作物的 PHLI 值显示出季节性波动的规律,因此可将其作为预测特定作物收获后损失的基准值,以加强粮食安全。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
Introducing a ‘Postharvest Loss Index (PHLI)’ for Some Selected High Producing Vegetables in Sri Lanka to Enhance Food Security
Developing a Postharvest Loss Index (PHLI) is important for filling the data gap to obtain an idea that real economic loss (quantity x price) occurs due to postharvest losses in the country and to take measures for enhancing food security. Estimating PHLI for agricultural commodities is a novel concept. Thus, in this study, PHLI for bean, carrot, leeks and beetroot was developed on monthly basis at the Dambulla Economic Center (DEC), the focal point in the fruits and vegetable value chain in Sri Lanka. Data were collected on the daily postharvest losses and the prices at the DEC during the period of October 2015 to March 2017. Moreover, SARIMA under time series analysis was employed to forecast future PHLI values for each vegetable. According to the results during the months where there was a decreasing trend in the supply of vegetables to the market, the PHLI was relatively low, and when the supply was high, it showed an increasing trend in the PHLI. The forecasted PHLI values for the beans for the next three months are 74.73, 61.31, and 61.71, while for the carrots forecasted values are 112.03, 81.28, and 47.67. Further, the forecasted values for the leeks are 271.33, 194.19 and 174.97, whereas for the beet PHLI values for the next three months are 177.78, 208.15, and 231.90. As the PHLI of the selected crops has shown a seasonal fluctuation with a pattern, it can be used as the base value to forecast the postharvest loss of a particular crop to enhance food security.
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