SENSITIVITY OF A 1D LAKE MODEL TO THE INPUT METEOROLOGICAL DATA

The paper evaluates how the choice of a source of meteorological data used as boundary conditions and the changes in model calibration parameters affect the adequate performance of a model of lake thermo- and hydrodynamics. The quality of simulation of water temperature dynamics in a small lake by a onedimensional GLM model using data from an automatic meteorological station on the lake shore, a state weather station and two global reanalyses was quantitatively assessed. It is shown that the best modeling result (RMSE of water temperature calculation 0,8-2,0°C, Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency >0,7) can be achieved using data sets that explicitly provide incoming shortwave and longwave radiation fluxes. At the same time, good representation of the bottom water temperature requires correct setting of wind regime, which is only possible if data from instrumental ground-based observations at a stationary weather station are applied. Combining ground-based observations of wind speed, air temperature and humidity with radiation fluxes from global reanalyses makes it possible to achieve a calculation error ≤1°C at all depths.The analysis of model sensitivity to calibration parameters in case when the reanalysis data are applied showed that parameters related to wind mixing, i.e. the scaling factor for wind speed and constants related to the in-model description of wind impact energy, have the greatest influence on the final calculation error. If we change the intensity coefficients of other types of mixing during calibration it does not lead to an obvious trend in the quantitative estimates of modeling quality. It could also be reasonable to introduce correction multipliers to the values of air temperature and solar radiation fluxes, thus neutralizing the effect of unrepresentativeness of the meteorological data applied for a particular lake, as well as to correct the value of solar radiation extinction coefficient relative to the value obtained from the Secchi depth. The results of the study could be used to justify the choice of meteorological data source and to optimize the methods of calibration of lake thermal stratification models