科雷马河径流对现代气候变化的敏感性

A. A. Lisina, A. A. Sazonov, N. Frolova, I. Krylenko, Yury Motovilov
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引用次数: 0

摘要

科雷马河是连续冻土带上的一条大河。该河流域的气候变化很大。为研究水系特征和动态,采用了信息模型综合软件 ECOMAG。本研究分析了 1979 年至 2013 年期间径流量和径流形成因素的实际动态。本研究分析了 1979 年至 2013 年期间的实际径流动态和径流形成因素,并为科雷马河流域调整了一个物理数学模型。此外,研究还探讨了水系特征对气候参数变化的敏感性。校准和验证结果表明,ECOMAG 能够准确再现科雷马河上两个观测点的排水量,在其支流博尔绍伊-安伊伊河上的表现也令人满意。ECOMAG 模型首次用于科雷马河流域,从而可以研究与气候有关的径流变化。初步统计分析表明,如果将 2000 年至 2013 年科里马河流域的平均水文特征与 1979 年至 1999 年的平均水文特征进行比较,科里马河河口上游 283 公里处的科里姆斯科耶河段的年径流量明显增加了 5.1%(从 1979 年至 1999 年的 99.4 千立方米增加到 2000 年至 2013 年的 104.5 千立方米)。ECOMAG 模型还有效地捕捉到了年径流量及其年内分布的变化。根据气象站数据,3 月、4 月、11 月和 12 月的气温上升了 2.5°C 以上。为了更全面地了解科雷马河对气候变化的反应机制,我们利用 ECOMAG 模型生成人工气象数据序列,分析了径流特征对气温和降水变化的敏感性。研究表明,与气温上升 1ºС 相比,水流量对降水量增加 5%更为敏感。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
SENSITIVITY OF THE KOLYMA RIVER RUNOFF TO MODERN CLIMATE CHANGE
The Kolyma River is a large river in the continuous permafrost zone. Its basin is subject to significant climatic changes. An information-modeling complex ECOMAG is employed for the study of water regime features and dynamics. ECOMAG calculates daily water flow rates at specified points based on meteorological data with a one-day resolution.This study analyzes the actual dynamics of water runoff and runoff-forming factors during the period from 1979 to 2013. A physical-mathematical model is adapted for the Kolyma River basin. Furthermore, the study examines the sensitivity of water regime characteristics to changing climate parameters. Calibration and verification demonstrated the ECOMAG’s ability to accurately reproduce observed water discharges for two points on the Kolyma River and the satisfactory performance on its tributary, the Bolshoy Anyui River. The ECOMAG model was for the first time employed for the Kolyma River basin, thus allowing the investigation of climate-related runoff changes. The preliminary statistical analysis revealed that if the average hydrological characteristics in the Kolyma River basin from 2000 to 2013 are compared with those from 1979 to 1999 a 5,1% rise of annual river runoff is evident for the Kolymskoye river section 283 km upstream the Kolyma River mouth (from 99,4 km3 in 1979-1999 up to 104,5 km3 in 2000-2013). The ECOMAG model also effectively captures changes in the annual water runoff and its intra-annual distribution.A rise in the mean annual air temperature by 1,3°C is characteristic of the modern time period. According to weather station data, the air temperature in March, April, November, and December increased by more than 2,5°C. The total annual precipitation increased by 8,3%, with September and March experiencing the most pronounced growth.To gain a more comprehensive understanding of the mechanisms governing the Kolyma River’s response to climate changes, the sensitivity of water runoff characteristics to air temperature and precipitation changes was analyzed using the ECOMAG model to generate artificial meteorological data series. The study demonstrates that water discharge is more sensitive to a 5% increase in precipitation than to a 1ºС rise in air temperature.
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