经济增长模式:数字化的作用

Roman Moskalyk, Valeriya Balashova
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摘要

大多数出版物证明,数字化是经济增长的源泉,在经济发展水平较高的国家,数字化的程度更高。然而,一些论文未能找到支持这一说法的经验证据,而是将其归因于数字化尚处于初始阶段或存在数字化悖论。关于数字经济在经济增长中的作用,经济文献的结论存在一定程度的模糊性。研究人员采用了不同的数字化衡量标准、国家和年份样本、回归方程中的控制变量以及不同的回归方法,这些都会对数字化变量的参数产生模棱两可的影响。本文旨在通过论证一个包含数字化指数的经济增长模型,确定数字化在经济增长中的作用,并对近年来的国家样本进行详细讨论,同时提供回归估计器的选项。文章利用了世界银行、欧盟委员会和传统基金会的统计数据。文章采用了系统分析、统计分析和带有固定效应的面板数据回归估计等方法,以确定数字化在经济增长中的作用。我们利用现有数据设计了一个经济增长模型,其中纳入了 2017-2022 年欧盟成员国的数字经济与社会指数(DESI)。结果显示,数字化对总产出增长具有积极而显著的因果效应。具体而言,数字化指数每提高 1%,国内生产总值就会增长近 0.2%。此外,我们还观察到资本、劳动力、贸易、人力资本和知识产权在推动增长方面的重要作用,这与内生增长理论是一致的。证明数字化对经济增长的重要性,可以为旨在促进数字化的政策提供论据。我们建议在更细分的行业层面进一步研究数字化的作用。然而,我们的研究并没有证明研究活动和机构质量对总产出有统计学意义上的影响。我们讨论了可能的原因,并建议在这些领域开展进一步研究。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
ECONOMIC GROWTH MODEL: THE ROLE OF DIGITALIZATION
Most publications justify that digitalization is a source of economic growth, to a greater extent in the countries with higher levels of economic development. However, some papers fail to find empirical evidence supporting this claim, attributing it to digitalization being in its initial stages or to the presence of the digitalization paradox. Economic literature exhibits a degree of ambiguity in its conclusions regarding the role of the digital economy in growth. Researchers employ different measures of digitalization, country and year samples, control variables in regression equation, as well as different regression methods, which can provoke ambiguous effects on the parameters of digital variables. The purpose of the article is to identify the role of digitalization in economic growth by justifying an economic growth model with the digitalization index and providing detailed discussions on our sample of countries over recent years, along with options for regression estimators. The article utilizes statistical data from the World Bank, European Commission, and Heritage Foundation. Methods such as system analysis, statistical analysis, and the regression estimator of panel data with fixed effects are implemented to identify the role of digitalization in economic growth. We have designed an economic growth model incorporating the Digital Economy and Society Index (DESI) of EU member states for the years 2017-2022, utilizing available data. The results reveal a positive and significant causal effect of digitization on gross output growth. Specifically, a 1% increase in the digitalization index results in GDP growth of almost 0.2%. Moreover, we observe the important roles of capital, labor, trade, human capital, and intellectual property rights in driving growth, consistent with the theory of endogenous growth. Proving the importance of digitalization for economic growth can be an argument for policies aimed at promoting digitalization. We suggest further research on the role of digitalization at a more disaggregated level of industries. However, our study does not demonstrate a statistically significant effect of research activity and institutional quality on gross output. We have discussed possible reasons for this and propose further research in these areas.
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