汇率贬值与尼日利亚的农业和工业部门

Isaac, Samuel Effiong, Okon, Joel Isaac, Arinze, Nnaemeka Peter, Odii, Nwanneka Mmahi
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引用次数: 0

摘要

本研究采用自回归分布式滞后(ARDL)模型,利用 1981 年至 2021 年的年度数据,研究了汇率贬值对尼日利亚经济中农业和工业部门的影响。研究结果表明,汇率贬值对工业和农业产出的影响相当类似。汇率贬值、通货膨胀、利率和政府支出对工业产出的短期影响为负,长期影响为正。同样,过去的农业产出、汇率贬值和政府支出对农业产出的短期影响是负面的,长期影响是正面的。通货膨胀对农业产出也有长期的积极影响。政府支出对工业和农业产出的长期影响最大。研究表明,有必要管理汇率的剧烈波动,以促进农业和工业部门做出切合实际的预测和合理的生产决策。这项研究的结果突出表明,在理解汇率贬值和其他经济变量对工业和农业部门的影响时,必须同时考虑短期动态和长期调整。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
Exchange Rate Depreciation and the Nigeria’s Agricultural and Industrial Sectors
This study examines the effect of exchange rate depreciation on the agricultural and industrial sectors of the Nigerian economy using annual data from 1981 to 2021 in an autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) model. The findings show that the effect of exchange rate depreciation on industrial and agricultural output was fairly similar. Exchange rate depreciation, inflation, interest rate, and government expenditure have negative effects on industrial output in the short run and positive effects in the long run. Similarly, past agricultural output, exchange rate depreciation, and government expenditure have negative effects on agricultural output in the short run and a positive effect in the long run. Inflation also has a long-term positive effect on agricultural output. Government expenditure had the most substantial long-run effect on industrial and agricultural output. The study shows the need to manage high exchange rate volatility to facilitate realistic forecasts and sound production decisions in the agricultural and industrial sectors. The findings of this study underscore the importance of considering both short-run dynamics and long-run adjustments in understanding the effects of exchange rate depreciation and other economic variables on the industrial and agricultural sectors.
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