Predicted Trajectory Accuracy Requirements to Reduce Aviation Impact of Space Launch Operations

Thousands of aircraft flight plans are affected by space launch and reentry operations each year, increasing the distances flown, causing flight delays, and increasing air traffic controllers workload. Due to regulations and procedures, predefined Aircraft Hazard Areas (AHAs) are used to protect aircraft from the risks of space launch and reentry debris, thus constraining the available airspace for other airspace users. While disruptive, there is no less impactful approach at present that adequately protects the flying public. In this paper, we explore the application of trajectory-based operations to evaluate the impact of an AHA on commercial aircraft, with the aim of reducing the number of flights that must be rerouted or rescheduled. This approach relies on precise trajectory predictions to the AHA boundary to determine which flights are expected to clear the AHA before its activation or remain clear of the AHA until after its deactivation. This paper derives the required predicted trajectory accuracy for air traffic automation systems to effectively predict flights impacted by an AHA. The required accuracy is derived based on a model for managing flights relative to the AHA using speed changes alone (as opposed to reroutes or holding) in the context of operational uncertainties like departure time delays and flight characteristics. Additionally, we derived a model to relate scheduling buffers to the AHA activation time, delivery accuracy at the AHA boundary, and AHA violation probability.