E-Commerce Cross-Border and Domestic Dynamics: Decision Tree and Spatial Insights on Seller Origin Impact

Despite the cross-border availability of almost all goods and services online due to global Internet access, the domestic origin of sellers remains significant. This study examines the preferences for domestic versus cross-border goods and services in online purchases in the EU online market from 2020 to 2023. We use quantitative methods including ordinary least squares (OLS), decision trees, and spatial autocorrelation analysis. We find significant effects of currency, language(s), and Internet use on domestic online purchases, while cross-border online purchases are further influenced by prices and urbanization. Our analysis reveals patterns based on the origin of the seller: domestic, intra-EU, or non-EU seller. There is a strong preference for electronic goods and services, regardless of the seller’s origin, while physical goods show a decreasing preference from domestic to intra-EU and non-EU sellers. Limited geographical effects and spatial patterns in online retailing were found, with a trend towards domestic localization. These differences in e-commerce by seller origin are primarily driven by country-specific characteristics (language(s), currencies) rather than geographic distance. The variation in the purchase of goods and services also depends on their physical and electronic form, that is, digital ordering and/or digital delivery. The expansion of e-commerce and the importance of country-specific characteristics require the development of standards to measure these influences.