揭示美国水电在干旱面前的脆弱性

Pouya Moghaddasi, K. Gavahi, H. Moftakhari, Hamid Moradkhani
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摘要

干旱是一种强烈的自然气候现象,给水电系统带来巨大挑战,对经济、社会和环境造成不利影响。本研究深入探讨了干旱对美国水力发电的深远影响,揭示了水文干旱与水力发电之间的密切联系。我们对 2003 年至 2020 年期间美国毗连地区(CONUS)的分析表明,干旱事件导致水力发电量大幅下降,降幅约为 3 亿兆瓦时,估计给该行业造成 280 亿美元的损失。此外,我们的研究结果还强调了干旱导致的水力发电量减少对环境的不利影响,这种影响往往通过增加对天然气使用的依赖来弥补,从而导致二氧化碳 (CO2)、二氧化硫 (SO2) 和氮氧化物 (NOX) 的大量排放,排放总量分别为 161,700 千吨、119,9 吨和 181,977 吨。除了这些发现,我们还评估了各州水力发电对干旱的脆弱性,发现华盛顿州和加利福尼亚州是最脆弱的州,而内华达州的脆弱性最小。总之,这项研究加深了人们对干旱对水力发电的多方面影响的理解,有助于为干旱管理和能源生产的相关政策和实践提供信息。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
Unraveling the hydropower vulnerability to drought in the United States
Drought, a potent natural climatic phenomenon, significantly challenges hydropower systems, bearing adverse consequences for economies, societies, and the environment. This study delves into the profound impact of drought on hydropower generation in the United States, revealing a robust correlation between hydrologic drought and hydroelectricity generation. Our analysis of the period from 2003 to 2020 for the Contiguous United States (CONUS) indicates that drought events led to a considerable decline in hydroelectricity generation, amounting to approximately 300 million MWh, and resulting in an estimated loss of $28 billion to the sector. Moreover, our findings highlight the adverse environmental effect of drought-induced hydropower generation reductions, which are often compensated by increased reliance on natural gas usage, which led to substantial emissions of carbon dioxide (CO2), sulfur dioxide (SO2), and nitrogen oxide (NOX), totaling 161,700 kilotons, 119,9 tons, and 181,977 tons, respectively. In addition to these findings, we assess the state-level vulnerability of hydropower to drought, identifying Washington and California as the most vulnerable states, while Nevada exhibits the least vulnerability. Overall, this study enhances understanding of the multifaceted effects of drought on hydropower, which can assist in informing policies and practices related to drought management and energy production.
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