当地短期和长期时空机制之间的多尺度相互作用及其对加州野火动态的影响

Fire Pub Date : 2024-07-12 DOI:10.3390/fire7070247
Stella Afolayan, Ademe Mekonnen, Brandi Gamelin, Yuh-Lang Lin
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引用次数: 0

摘要

加利福尼亚州野火骤增,促使人们对包括天气和气候条件在内的诱因进行研究。本研究调查了大尺度气候模式(如北方夏季季内涛动(BSISO)、厄尔尼诺南方涛动(ENSO)和太平洋十年涛动(PDO))之间复杂的多尺度相互作用,以及它们对加利福尼亚州湿度和温度波动以及野火动态的影响。该研究探讨了 PDO 和 BSISO 对季节内火灾天气变化的综合影响;火灾天气指数 (FWI)、相对湿度、蒸气压差 (VPD) 和温度在评估野火风险方面的相互作用;以及加州境内 FWI 与气候因素之间关系的地理差异。研究采用了多管齐下的方法,在分析野火频率和烧毁面积的同时,还分析了气候模式和大气条件。研究结果表明,在不同的气候条件下,野火活动具有显著的差异性,在特定的 BSISO 阶段、拉尼娜现象和凉爽的 PDO 期间,野火风险会增加。BSISO 的影响因其与 PDO 的相互作用而不同。温度、相对湿度和 VPD 对野火风险有很强的预测意义,在高海拔地区,FWI 与温度之间有显著关系(相关性,r > 0.7,p ≤ 0.05),在内华达山脉沿线,FWI 与相对湿度之间有显著关系(r ≤ -0.7,p ≤ 0.05)。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
Multiscale Interactions between Local Short- and Long-Term Spatio-Temporal Mechanisms and Their Impact on California Wildfire Dynamics
California has experienced a surge in wildfires, prompting research into contributing factors, including weather and climate conditions. This study investigates the complex, multiscale interactions between large-scale climate patterns, such as the Boreal Summer Intraseasonal Oscillation (BSISO), El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO), and the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) and their influence on moisture and temperature fluctuations, and wildfire dynamics in California. The combined impacts of PDO and BSISO on intraseasonal fire weather changes; the interplay between fire weather index (FWI), relative humidity, vapor pressure deficit (VPD), and temperature in assessing wildfire risks; and geographical variations in the relationship between the FWI and climatic factors within California are examined. The study employs a multi-pronged approach, analyzing wildfire frequency and burned areas alongside climate patterns and atmospheric conditions. The findings reveal significant variability in wildfire activity across different climate conditions, with heightened risks during specific BSISO phases, La-Niña, and cool PDO. The influence of BSISO varies depending on its interaction with PDO. Temperature, relative humidity, and VPD show strong predictive significance for wildfire risks, with significant relationships between FWI and temperature in elevated regions (correlation, r > 0.7, p ≤ 0.05) and FWI and relative humidity along the Sierra Nevada Mountains (r ≤ −0.7, p ≤ 0.05).
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