Population densities and real estate development on the alignment of São Paulo’s Congonhas and Guarulhos airports’ runways

Urban development surrounding commercial airports is a conflictual factor that hampers their operations, prevents their expansion, and may lead to their closure. São Paulo has 22 million in its metropolitan area. It is served by Congonhas (Domestic) and Guarulhos (International) Airports (22 and 46 million passengers, respectively, in 2019). Congonhas is surrounded by urban development. The hypothesis of this study was to verify if a similar process is happening around Guarulhos. This study investigates population density on runway alignments and the trend of real estate development from 1985 to 2013 by using “heat maps” superposed to an “Alignment Radial Model” (ARM) comprising a central circle from 0-2 km and concentrically radial rings at 2-4 km, 4-6 km, 6-8 km and 8-10 km radius. The 2010 population was computed in Census sectors within the ARM. Real estate development data of both runway-aligned and -dis-aligned was mapped in several years’ periods over the ARM. Results show intense real estate development Northwest of Congonhas from 1985 to 2004, with a similar pattern the Western alignment of Guarulhos airport’ runways since 2005. High population densities are noted in 2010 South of Congonhas and East of Guarulhos airports, where little or no real estate development occurred along 1985-2013, indicating informal dwellings. Evidence shows that the urban development conflicting with Congonhas airport is being replicated around Guarulhos airport, rendering both unable to expand their runways, restricting São Paulo’s airports system capacity. This brings further challenges both for airport and urban planners to increasing airport capacity at São Paulo.