Does Geopolitical Risk Matter for Cross-Industry Risk Contagion: The Roles of Real Linkage and Information Channels*

Using data from 34 Chinese industries from January 2007 to February 2024, we examine risk spillover in the economic system and the channels through which geopolitical risk (GPR) influences contagion effects. Risk spillover measurements are calculated for both the short and long term by combining variational mode decomposition with the variance decomposition of vector autoregression. Our findings provide evidence of significant and time-varying spillovers among industries over time. The results on densities and assortativity coefficients indicate the presence of structural changes in the risk network during geopolitical crises. Furthermore, we find that the real linkage (input–output nexus) is an important determinant of long-term spillovers during periods of high GPR, and the information channel (market sentiment) is associated with risk contagion caused by GPR in both the short and long term. Overall, this paper offers valuable insights to prevent and mitigate the negative consequences triggered by geopolitical events on the stability of the economic system.