Mapping human-carnivore coexistence: approaches to integrating anthropogenic influences on carnivore distribution and connectivity modelling

Interdisciplinary approaches to modelling human-wildlife coexistence have gained much attention in recent years, especially regarding carnivores which are subject to historical human persecution and dynamic attitudes and cultural values. Accordingly, there have been many attempts to gain insights into anthropogenic influences on carnivores through the use of species distribution models and connectivity analyses. However, there have been no global reviews on how anthropogenic influences are incorporated into such models. We conducted a literature review of global terrestrial carnivore species distribution and connectivity studies from 1995 to 2021 to evaluate the type of measure, frequency of use and spatial scale of the predictor variables used to describe environmental conditions and assess anthropogenic influences in such predictive models. We evaluated 2495 variables from 263 carnivore distribution and connectivity studies and found that variables used to describe environmental conditions are four times more commonly used than those used to assess anthropogenic influences on carnivores. However, the number of anthropogenic covariates used in carnivore distribution and connectivity studies has increased by 4.7% per year, and the spatial resolution of those covariates has simultaneously decreased by 7.6% per year. We observed that anthropogenic covariates were used more in studies occurring in the global north and for larger-bodied carnivores (>15 kg), suggesting the need for better integration of anthropogenic metrics into predictive models more widely and for smaller-bodied carnivores. To help guide and advance the further use of sociological data into predictive spatial models for carnivores, we propose a framework that emphasizes integration of sociological methodologies and data sources ranging from exploratory expert elicitation to targeted focus group interviews at multiple phases in the conservation planning process.