Factors in terrorist risk assessment: a rapid evidence assessment of the extremism risk guidance (ERG22+) factors

Purpose Since 2011, the Extremism Risk Guidance (ERG 22+) has been the primary risk assessment framework used for terrorist and violent extremist offenders in England and Wales. The aim of this study was to conduct a rapid evidence assessment to examine the research literature on the ERG22+ factors and to identify possible significant new and emerging knowledge around potential new factors. Design/methodology/approach Searches were conducted of the Google Scholar database to identify relevant literature published between 2012 and 2020. In total, 29 documents were identified, which examined new radicalisation models and frameworks, 339 were identified, which explored to some extent one or more of the current ERG factors, and a further 138 articles were identified, which focused on potentially relevant additional issues/factors. Findings Most of the ERG factors were the focus of substantial research activity between 2012 and 2020. Six factors, however, received very little research attention. Potential implications of these trends are considered. Ten research themes were identified with the potential to either form new factors or which could play a significant role in the updating or revision of some existing factors. Originality/value This paper is the first rapid evidence assessment on the ERG22+ risk factors. It provides an important picture of the published scientific research of potential relevance in this area and helps to inform the review process for the ERG22+.