根据树龄重建的多世纪干旱图揭示了圣诞岛水资源面临的日益严重的威胁

IF 2.7 3区 农林科学 Q1 FORESTRY
S. Sharifazari , J.G. Palmer , F. Johnson , C.S.M. Turney , M.S. Andersen
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引用次数: 0

摘要

依赖有限淡水资源的小岛屿面临季节性干旱的巨大风险,这对其生态系统和社区都构成了重大威胁。位于印度洋东部的圣诞岛就是一个例子,其雨季的严重干旱不仅影响淡水资源,还影响岛上的生物多样性,包括标志性红蟹物种的迁徙模式。然而,该岛的短期工具气候记录难以量化干旱的变异性并评估其相关风险。干旱会导致土壤水分减少,从而影响树木的生长,因此通过树环年代学重建水文气候可以提供有关干湿期历史变异的长期信息。在这里,我们利用来自亚洲、澳大利亚和新西兰的 64 个遥感树环年代学重建了圣诞岛的湿季(12 月至次年 5 月)自校准帕尔默干旱严重程度指数(scPDSI)。在校准期间,遥感树环年代学解释了超过 66% 的 scPDSI 变异(R-平方)。在回归模型中被确定为重要预测因子的树木主要位于受印度洋偶极子(IOD)等印度洋-太平洋气候驱动因素影响的地区。重建时间跨度为公元 1540 年至 2000 年。在这一时期的前四个世纪,极端(第 5 百分位数)干旱和冲积事件的频率很少超过每 13 年一次。相比之下,在 20 世纪,这两种极端事件的频率出现了前所未有的增长,并明显转向干旱状况。这些发现突出表明,圣诞岛在雨季期间出现更频繁、更严重的干旱情况,这给水资源管理带来了挑战,并可能威胁到岛上的生态系统和为社区提供的服务。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
A multi-centennial drought reconstruction from tree-rings reveals a growing threat to Christmas Island’s water resources

Small islands that depend on limited freshwater resources are at significant risk from seasonal drought, which poses a major threat to both their ecosystems and communities. Christmas Island, located in the eastern Indian Ocean, presents an example for which severe drought conditions during the wet season not only affects its freshwater resources but also biodiversity on the island, including the migration pattern of the iconic red crab species. However, short-term instrumental climate records on this island make it hard to quantify drought variability and assess its associated risks. Tree growth is affected by drought via reduced soil moisture, and hydroclimate reconstruction from tree-ring chronologies can therefore provide longer-term information on historical variability of dry and wet periods. Here, we reconstructed the wet season (December-May) self-calibrating Palmer Drought Severity Index (scPDSI) for Christmas Island using 64 remote tree-ring chronologies from Asia, Australia, and New Zealand. scPDSI was reconstructed using the Point-to-Point Regression (PPR) method and compared with regional marine coral proxies for independent verification. The remote tree-ring chronologies explained more than 66 percent of scPDSI variance (R-squared) over the calibration period. The trees identified as significant predictors in the regression model were primarily located in areas affected by the Indo-Pacific climate drivers including the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD). The reconstructions span 1540 CE to 2000. During the first four centuries of this period, the frequency of extreme (5th percentile) droughts and pluvial events rarely exceeded one event per 13 years. In contrast, the frequency of both extremes experienced an unprecedented increase during the 20th century, and with a notable shift towards dry conditions. These findings highlight a significant shift towards more frequent and severe dry conditions during the wet season on Christmas Island, posing a challenge to water resource management and potentially threatening the island's ecosystem and services to the community.

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来源期刊
Dendrochronologia
Dendrochronologia FORESTRY-GEOGRAPHY, PHYSICAL
CiteScore
5.50
自引率
13.30%
发文量
82
审稿时长
22.8 weeks
期刊介绍: Dendrochronologia is a peer-reviewed international scholarly journal that presents high-quality research related to growth rings of woody plants, i.e., trees and shrubs, and the application of tree-ring studies. The areas covered by the journal include, but are not limited to: Archaeology Botany Climatology Ecology Forestry Geology Hydrology Original research articles, reviews, communications, technical notes and personal notes are considered for publication.
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