The predictive validity of MCAT scores and undergraduate GPA for COMLEX-USA licensure exam performance of students enrolled in osteopathic medical schools.

Context: Osteopathic (Doctor of Osteopathic Medicine [DO]) medical students account for more than 25 % of all medical students in the United States.

Objectives: This study examined the predictive validity of Medical College Admission Test (MCAT) total scores and cumulative undergraduate grade point averages (UGPAs) for performance on the Comprehensive Osteopathic Medical Licensing Examination of the United States (COMLEX-USA) Level 1 and Level 2-CE (Cognitive Evaluation) licensure examinations administered by the National Board of Osteopathic Medical Examiners (NBOME). Additionally, the study examined the degree to which MCAT total scores and UGPAs provide comparable prediction of student performance by key sociodemographic variables.

Methods: This study involved a collaborative effort between the Association of American Medical Colleges (AAMC), the American Association of Colleges of Osteopathic Medicine (AACOM) and the NBOME. Data were examined for 39 accredited DO-granting medical schools in the United States during the 2017 application cycle. Researchers utilized three regression models that included MCAT total scores, cumulative UGPA, and combined MCAT total scores and cumulative UGPA to determine predictive validity. Researchers also examined the comparability of prediction for sociodemographic variables by examining the differences between observed and predicted error for both scores and pass/fail success rates.

Results: Medium to large correlations were discernible between MCAT total scores, UGPA, and COMLEX-USA examination outcomes. For both COMLEX-USA Level 1 and Level 2-CE scores and pass/fail outcomes, MCAT scores alone provided superior predictive value to UGPA alone. However, MCAT scores and UGPA utilized in conjunction provided the best predictive value. When predicting both licensure examination scores and pass/fail outcomes by sociodemographic variables, all three models provided comparable predictive accuracy.

Conclusions: Findings from this comprehensive study of DO-granting medical schools provide evidence for the value-added benefit of taking MCAT scores and UGPA into consideration, particularly when these measures are utilized in conjunction. Further, findings provide evidence indicating that individuals from different sociodemographic backgrounds who enter medical school with similar MCAT scores and UGPA perform similarly on licensure examination outcome measures.