{"title":"有界ℤ值时间序列的三叉差分自回归过程","authors":"Huaping Chen, Zifei Han, Fukang Zhu","doi":"10.1111/jtsa.12762","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"<p>This article tackles the modeling challenge of bounded <span></span><math>\n <mrow>\n <mi>ℤ</mi>\n </mrow></math>-valued time series by proposing a novel trinomial difference autoregressive process. This process not only maintains the autocorrelation structure presenting in the classical binomial GARCH model, but also facilitates the analysis of bounded <span></span><math>\n <mrow>\n <mi>ℤ</mi>\n </mrow></math>-valued time series with negative or positive correlation. We verify the stationarity and ergodicity of the couple process (comprising both the observed process and its conditional mean process) while also presenting several stochastic properties. We further discuss the conditional maximum likelihood estimation and establish their asymptotic properties. The effectiveness of these estimators is assessed through simulation studies, followed by the application of the proposed models to two real datasets.</p>","PeriodicalId":49973,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Time Series Analysis","volume":"46 1","pages":"152-180"},"PeriodicalIF":1.2000,"publicationDate":"2024-07-11","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":"0","resultStr":"{\"title\":\"A trinomial difference autoregressive process for the bounded \\n \\n ℤ\\n -valued time series\",\"authors\":\"Huaping Chen, Zifei Han, Fukang Zhu\",\"doi\":\"10.1111/jtsa.12762\",\"DOIUrl\":null,\"url\":null,\"abstract\":\"<p>This article tackles the modeling challenge of bounded <span></span><math>\\n <mrow>\\n <mi>ℤ</mi>\\n </mrow></math>-valued time series by proposing a novel trinomial difference autoregressive process. This process not only maintains the autocorrelation structure presenting in the classical binomial GARCH model, but also facilitates the analysis of bounded <span></span><math>\\n <mrow>\\n <mi>ℤ</mi>\\n </mrow></math>-valued time series with negative or positive correlation. We verify the stationarity and ergodicity of the couple process (comprising both the observed process and its conditional mean process) while also presenting several stochastic properties. We further discuss the conditional maximum likelihood estimation and establish their asymptotic properties. The effectiveness of these estimators is assessed through simulation studies, followed by the application of the proposed models to two real datasets.</p>\",\"PeriodicalId\":49973,\"journal\":{\"name\":\"Journal of Time Series Analysis\",\"volume\":\"46 1\",\"pages\":\"152-180\"},\"PeriodicalIF\":1.2000,\"publicationDate\":\"2024-07-11\",\"publicationTypes\":\"Journal Article\",\"fieldsOfStudy\":null,\"isOpenAccess\":false,\"openAccessPdf\":\"\",\"citationCount\":\"0\",\"resultStr\":null,\"platform\":\"Semanticscholar\",\"paperid\":null,\"PeriodicalName\":\"Journal of Time Series Analysis\",\"FirstCategoryId\":\"100\",\"ListUrlMain\":\"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/jtsa.12762\",\"RegionNum\":4,\"RegionCategory\":\"数学\",\"ArticlePicture\":[],\"TitleCN\":null,\"AbstractTextCN\":null,\"PMCID\":null,\"EPubDate\":\"\",\"PubModel\":\"\",\"JCR\":\"Q3\",\"JCRName\":\"MATHEMATICS, INTERDISCIPLINARY APPLICATIONS\",\"Score\":null,\"Total\":0}","platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"Journal of Time Series Analysis","FirstCategoryId":"100","ListUrlMain":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/jtsa.12762","RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"数学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"Q3","JCRName":"MATHEMATICS, INTERDISCIPLINARY APPLICATIONS","Score":null,"Total":0}
A trinomial difference autoregressive process for the bounded
ℤ
-valued time series
This article tackles the modeling challenge of bounded -valued time series by proposing a novel trinomial difference autoregressive process. This process not only maintains the autocorrelation structure presenting in the classical binomial GARCH model, but also facilitates the analysis of bounded -valued time series with negative or positive correlation. We verify the stationarity and ergodicity of the couple process (comprising both the observed process and its conditional mean process) while also presenting several stochastic properties. We further discuss the conditional maximum likelihood estimation and establish their asymptotic properties. The effectiveness of these estimators is assessed through simulation studies, followed by the application of the proposed models to two real datasets.
期刊介绍:
During the last 30 years Time Series Analysis has become one of the most important and widely used branches of Mathematical Statistics. Its fields of application range from neurophysiology to astrophysics and it covers such well-known areas as economic forecasting, study of biological data, control systems, signal processing and communications and vibrations engineering.
The Journal of Time Series Analysis started in 1980, has since become the leading journal in its field, publishing papers on both fundamental theory and applications, as well as review papers dealing with recent advances in major areas of the subject and short communications on theoretical developments. The editorial board consists of many of the world''s leading experts in Time Series Analysis.